IMO if you assume that (a) an intelligence explosion occurs at some point, (b) the leading actor uses the intelligence explosion to produce a superintelligence that provides a decisive strategic advantage, and (c) the superintelligence is aligned/controlled...
I don’t think this is obvious, stably-multipolar worlds seem at least plausible to me.
@Bodgan, Can you spell out a vision for a stably multipolar world with the above assumptions satisfied?
IMO assumption B is doing a lot of the work— you might argue that the IE will not give anyone a DSA, in which case things get more complicated. I do see some plausible stories in which this could happen but they seem pretty unlikely.
@Ryan, thanks for linking to those. Lmk if there are particular points you think are most relevant (meta: I think in general I find discourse more productive when it’s like “hey here’s a claim, also read more here” as opposed to links. Ofc that puts more communication burden on you though, so feel free to just take the links approach.)
(Yeah, I was just literally linking to things people might find relevant to read without making any particular claim. I think this is often slightly helpful, so I do it. Edit: when I do this, I should probably include a disclaimer like “Linking for relevance, not making any specific claim”.)
Yup, I was thinking about worlds in which there is no obvious DSA, or where the parties involved are risk averse enough (perhaps e.g. for reasons like in this talk)
My expectation is that DSI can (and will) be achieved before ASI. In fact, I expect ASI to be about as useful as a bomb which has a minimum effect size of destroying the entire solar system if deployed. In other words, useful only for Mutually Assured Destruction.
DSI only requires a nuclear-armed state actor to have an effective global missile defense system. Whichever nuclear-armed state actor gets that without any other group having that can effectively demand the surrender and disarmament of all other nations. Including confiscating their compute resources.
Do you think missile defense is so difficult that only ASI can manage it? I don’t. That seems like a technical discussion which would need more details to hash out. I’m pretty sure an explicitly designed tool AI and a large drone and satellite fleet could accomplish that.
I don’t think this is obvious, stably-multipolar worlds seem at least plausible to me.
See also here and here.
@Bodgan, Can you spell out a vision for a stably multipolar world with the above assumptions satisfied?
IMO assumption B is doing a lot of the work— you might argue that the IE will not give anyone a DSA, in which case things get more complicated. I do see some plausible stories in which this could happen but they seem pretty unlikely.
@Ryan, thanks for linking to those. Lmk if there are particular points you think are most relevant (meta: I think in general I find discourse more productive when it’s like “hey here’s a claim, also read more here” as opposed to links. Ofc that puts more communication burden on you though, so feel free to just take the links approach.)
(Yeah, I was just literally linking to things people might find relevant to read without making any particular claim. I think this is often slightly helpful, so I do it. Edit: when I do this, I should probably include a disclaimer like “Linking for relevance, not making any specific claim”.)
Yup, I was thinking about worlds in which there is no obvious DSA, or where the parties involved are risk averse enough (perhaps e.g. for reasons like in this talk)
My expectation is that DSI can (and will) be achieved before ASI. In fact, I expect ASI to be about as useful as a bomb which has a minimum effect size of destroying the entire solar system if deployed. In other words, useful only for Mutually Assured Destruction. DSI only requires a nuclear-armed state actor to have an effective global missile defense system. Whichever nuclear-armed state actor gets that without any other group having that can effectively demand the surrender and disarmament of all other nations. Including confiscating their compute resources. Do you think missile defense is so difficult that only ASI can manage it? I don’t. That seems like a technical discussion which would need more details to hash out. I’m pretty sure an explicitly designed tool AI and a large drone and satellite fleet could accomplish that.