My expectation is that DSI can (and will) be achieved before ASI. In fact, I expect ASI to be about as useful as a bomb which has a minimum effect size of destroying the entire solar system if deployed. In other words, useful only for Mutually Assured Destruction.
DSI only requires a nuclear-armed state actor to have an effective global missile defense system. Whichever nuclear-armed state actor gets that without any other group having that can effectively demand the surrender and disarmament of all other nations. Including confiscating their compute resources.
Do you think missile defense is so difficult that only ASI can manage it? I don’t. That seems like a technical discussion which would need more details to hash out. I’m pretty sure an explicitly designed tool AI and a large drone and satellite fleet could accomplish that.
My expectation is that DSI can (and will) be achieved before ASI. In fact, I expect ASI to be about as useful as a bomb which has a minimum effect size of destroying the entire solar system if deployed. In other words, useful only for Mutually Assured Destruction. DSI only requires a nuclear-armed state actor to have an effective global missile defense system. Whichever nuclear-armed state actor gets that without any other group having that can effectively demand the surrender and disarmament of all other nations. Including confiscating their compute resources. Do you think missile defense is so difficult that only ASI can manage it? I don’t. That seems like a technical discussion which would need more details to hash out. I’m pretty sure an explicitly designed tool AI and a large drone and satellite fleet could accomplish that.