Polling shows Biden and Trump very close in the state
polling in Texas systematically underestimates Dems with Latinos
Turnout in TX seems to be much higher than past years, which is great for Dems because people who didn’t vote in 2016/2018 are disproportionately young/nonwhite
Dems nearly won in 2018 despite depressed Latino turnout
Do you think FiveThirtyEight and the Economist haven’t appropriately accounted for these considerations in their models? I don’t think the discrepancy with the markets are so large. Where did ~65% come from?
Neither model takes into account any of these factors, and indeed their discrepancy with the markets are much smaller.
65% just comes from my estimate of the fair value of a TX biden contract, which comes from...whatever internal process generates probabilistic credences.
There’s plausible arguments for Trump being favored (he is currently ahead in the polls, after all), but I can’t think of any good arguments for him being at ~75c.
EDIT: Trump and Biden are now tied in the 538 TX polling average
I spent some time. I do not see the smoking gun. Can you post more details or links?
Polling shows Biden and Trump very close in the state
polling in Texas systematically underestimates Dems with Latinos
Turnout in TX seems to be much higher than past years, which is great for Dems because people who didn’t vote in 2016/2018 are disproportionately young/nonwhite
Dems nearly won in 2018 despite depressed Latino turnout
Do you think FiveThirtyEight and the Economist haven’t appropriately accounted for these considerations in their models? I don’t think the discrepancy with the markets are so large. Where did ~65% come from?
Neither model takes into account any of these factors, and indeed their discrepancy with the markets are much smaller.
65% just comes from my estimate of the fair value of a TX biden contract, which comes from...whatever internal process generates probabilistic credences.
Yeah the +EV of this bet is marginal at best.
Are there any important considerations in the opposite direction?
There’s plausible arguments for Trump being favored (he is currently ahead in the polls, after all), but I can’t think of any good arguments for him being at ~75c.
EDIT: Trump and Biden are now tied in the 538 TX polling average