Neither model takes into account any of these factors, and indeed their discrepancy with the markets are much smaller.
65% just comes from my estimate of the fair value of a TX biden contract, which comes from...whatever internal process generates probabilistic credences.
Neither model takes into account any of these factors, and indeed their discrepancy with the markets are much smaller.
65% just comes from my estimate of the fair value of a TX biden contract, which comes from...whatever internal process generates probabilistic credences.