Do you think FiveThirtyEight and the Economist haven’t appropriately accounted for these considerations in their models? I don’t think the discrepancy with the markets are so large. Where did ~65% come from?
Neither model takes into account any of these factors, and indeed their discrepancy with the markets are much smaller.
65% just comes from my estimate of the fair value of a TX biden contract, which comes from...whatever internal process generates probabilistic credences.
Do you think FiveThirtyEight and the Economist haven’t appropriately accounted for these considerations in their models? I don’t think the discrepancy with the markets are so large. Where did ~65% come from?
Neither model takes into account any of these factors, and indeed their discrepancy with the markets are much smaller.
65% just comes from my estimate of the fair value of a TX biden contract, which comes from...whatever internal process generates probabilistic credences.
Yeah the +EV of this bet is marginal at best.