I wasn’t imagining people actually losing their jobs. I was imagining people having a holy shit moment though, because e.g. they can watch computer-using-agents take over their keyboard and mouse and browse around, play video games, send messages, make purchases, etc. Like with ChatGPT it’ll be unreliable at first and even for the things it can do reliably it’ll take years to actually get whole categories of people laid off.
Plausible. How easy will it be to tell that this is happening? A million people get laid off probably like every week, right? In the ordinary flux of the economy. And a permanent increase in unemployment of a million people would be maybe a 0.01% increase in unemployment stats worldwide? It would be nice to have a more easily measurable thing to forecast.
One way would be to now think up ways how you can monetize the existing of effective digital agents. There are probably a bunch of business opportunities.
I think there is a 10-20 per cent chance we get digital agents in 2025 that produce a holy shit moment as big as the launch of chatgpt.
If that happens I think that will produce another round of questions that sounds approximately like “how were we so unprepared for this moment”.
Fool me once, shame on you…
I’d say it’s more like 50% chance.
That’s pretty high. What use cases are you imagining as the most likely?
E.g. 50,000 travel agents lose their jobs in 25⁄26
I wasn’t imagining people actually losing their jobs. I was imagining people having a holy shit moment though, because e.g. they can watch computer-using-agents take over their keyboard and mouse and browse around, play video games, send messages, make purchases, etc. Like with ChatGPT it’ll be unreliable at first and even for the things it can do reliably it’ll take years to actually get whole categories of people laid off.
I think it will take less than 3 years for the equivalent of 1,000,000 people to get laid off.
Plausible. How easy will it be to tell that this is happening? A million people get laid off probably like every week, right? In the ordinary flux of the economy. And a permanent increase in unemployment of a million people would be maybe a 0.01% increase in unemployment stats worldwide? It would be nice to have a more easily measurable thing to forecast.
Expecting that, how do you prepare?
One way would be to now think up ways how you can monetize the existing of effective digital agents. There are probably a bunch of business opportunities.