I wasn’t imagining people actually losing their jobs. I was imagining people having a holy shit moment though, because e.g. they can watch computer-using-agents take over their keyboard and mouse and browse around, play video games, send messages, make purchases, etc. Like with ChatGPT it’ll be unreliable at first and even for the things it can do reliably it’ll take years to actually get whole categories of people laid off.
Plausible. How easy will it be to tell that this is happening? A million people get laid off probably like every week, right? In the ordinary flux of the economy. And a permanent increase in unemployment of a million people would be maybe a 0.01% increase in unemployment stats worldwide? It would be nice to have a more easily measurable thing to forecast.
E.g. 50,000 travel agents lose their jobs in 25⁄26
I wasn’t imagining people actually losing their jobs. I was imagining people having a holy shit moment though, because e.g. they can watch computer-using-agents take over their keyboard and mouse and browse around, play video games, send messages, make purchases, etc. Like with ChatGPT it’ll be unreliable at first and even for the things it can do reliably it’ll take years to actually get whole categories of people laid off.
I think it will take less than 3 years for the equivalent of 1,000,000 people to get laid off.
Plausible. How easy will it be to tell that this is happening? A million people get laid off probably like every week, right? In the ordinary flux of the economy. And a permanent increase in unemployment of a million people would be maybe a 0.01% increase in unemployment stats worldwide? It would be nice to have a more easily measurable thing to forecast.