As an ASX addict, I also wrote a prediction, and was the third person to do so (though the first two were one-liners and mine was longer). Here’s what I wrote.
Here’s my comment with my prediction before reading on: 70% that the places that re-rolled on governance got better.
I have been told that in general some of the best things for economic growth are wars and natural disasters. (Indeed, I expect/hope to see something similar coming out of Covid.) On many levels, razing the current system and letting a new one grow allows it to get into a better equilibrium.
That said, if you do a big enough level of destruction (e.g. x-risk) everything is just dead and there’s nothing good left. You can destroy the FDA and expect a better thing to rise up, but I think just destroying the United States doesn’t get you a better United States.
My prediction here is that most of the places that got taken over and re-done got better. I’m 70% that was the outcome. Main reason why I’m wrong is if they didn’t get to do the things that the people wanted and instead that the French made them all do the same top-down things that the French wanted (e.g. losing a democracy and getting a totalitarian leader).
(One other reason why I’m wrong is that it turns out Scott wrote a fun, narratively twisty post where the answer is “Gotcha, assigning a probability here is fundamentally confused” and they got better in some ways and worse on others and it all comes down to whatever philosophical assumptions you bring to the table. And then I will feel a little silly.)
Alright, that’s my prediction. 70% that the places that re-rolled on government improved.
I predicted 80% on this particular set of reforms being good but I would have put 60 on the opposite if he had disguised the identity of the revolutionaries. Democracy and freedom are good and the French revolution/Napoleon were generally better at those than the pre-existing institutions. But most revolutions (and wars, and natural disasters) don’t budge it either way. The average is a short burst of bloodshed followed by more of what came before.
I highly doubt that wars or disasters are net good on average. Being defeated in WWII was probably good for the axis powers’ economies because they replaced totalitarian states with democracies. But I doubt that’s the default outcome. Losing a war with Spain, for example, seems to have been very bad for most countries’ long-term prospects.
Um. I didn’t write down my prediction, and I didn’t do much analysis either. But I estimated 70% just like (apparently) everyone else. [checks] Okay not everyone, but it does look like 70% in favor of reform doing better is the mode.
When people are asked to say a random integer between 0 and 10, the most frequent answer is 7. (Seriously, go ahead and try it, you will get at least 30% sevens.) Also, when rationalists are asked to make a prediction, they know that 50% means “I don’t know” and 90% means overconfidence, so they will probably choose something in between.
Therefore, 70% should generally be the most popular answer on SSC polls, regardless of the question.
As an ASX addict, I also wrote a prediction, and was the third person to do so (though the first two were one-liners and mine was longer). Here’s what I wrote.
I predicted 80% on this particular set of reforms being good but I would have put 60 on the opposite if he had disguised the identity of the revolutionaries. Democracy and freedom are good and the French revolution/Napoleon were generally better at those than the pre-existing institutions. But most revolutions (and wars, and natural disasters) don’t budge it either way. The average is a short burst of bloodshed followed by more of what came before.
I highly doubt that wars or disasters are net good on average. Being defeated in WWII was probably good for the axis powers’ economies because they replaced totalitarian states with democracies. But I doubt that’s the default outcome. Losing a war with Spain, for example, seems to have been very bad for most countries’ long-term prospects.
Um. I didn’t write down my prediction, and I didn’t do much analysis either. But I estimated 70% just like (apparently) everyone else. [checks] Okay not everyone, but it does look like 70% in favor of reform doing better is the mode.
I was the first person to publicly predict 70%, so I would like to hereby claim that I’m a trend-setter and you just copied me.
When people are asked to say a random integer between 0 and 10, the most frequent answer is 7. (Seriously, go ahead and try it, you will get at least 30% sevens.) Also, when rationalists are asked to make a prediction, they know that 50% means “I don’t know” and 90% means overconfidence, so they will probably choose something in between.
Therefore, 70% should generally be the most popular answer on SSC polls, regardless of the question.
7 is such a common guess it is literally used as a force (albeit an unreliable one) in some magic tricks.
Testable prediction made! Will see if/when ASX does this in future.
I would love it if I copied you since I didn’t read anything first. My undefined superpowers will serve me well. I predict.