Um. I didn’t write down my prediction, and I didn’t do much analysis either. But I estimated 70% just like (apparently) everyone else. [checks] Okay not everyone, but it does look like 70% in favor of reform doing better is the mode.
When people are asked to say a random integer between 0 and 10, the most frequent answer is 7. (Seriously, go ahead and try it, you will get at least 30% sevens.) Also, when rationalists are asked to make a prediction, they know that 50% means “I don’t know” and 90% means overconfidence, so they will probably choose something in between.
Therefore, 70% should generally be the most popular answer on SSC polls, regardless of the question.
Um. I didn’t write down my prediction, and I didn’t do much analysis either. But I estimated 70% just like (apparently) everyone else. [checks] Okay not everyone, but it does look like 70% in favor of reform doing better is the mode.
I was the first person to publicly predict 70%, so I would like to hereby claim that I’m a trend-setter and you just copied me.
When people are asked to say a random integer between 0 and 10, the most frequent answer is 7. (Seriously, go ahead and try it, you will get at least 30% sevens.) Also, when rationalists are asked to make a prediction, they know that 50% means “I don’t know” and 90% means overconfidence, so they will probably choose something in between.
Therefore, 70% should generally be the most popular answer on SSC polls, regardless of the question.
7 is such a common guess it is literally used as a force (albeit an unreliable one) in some magic tricks.
Testable prediction made! Will see if/when ASX does this in future.
I would love it if I copied you since I didn’t read anything first. My undefined superpowers will serve me well. I predict.