When people are asked to say a random integer between 0 and 10, the most frequent answer is 7. (Seriously, go ahead and try it, you will get at least 30% sevens.) Also, when rationalists are asked to make a prediction, they know that 50% means “I don’t know” and 90% means overconfidence, so they will probably choose something in between.
Therefore, 70% should generally be the most popular answer on SSC polls, regardless of the question.
When people are asked to say a random integer between 0 and 10, the most frequent answer is 7. (Seriously, go ahead and try it, you will get at least 30% sevens.) Also, when rationalists are asked to make a prediction, they know that 50% means “I don’t know” and 90% means overconfidence, so they will probably choose something in between.
Therefore, 70% should generally be the most popular answer on SSC polls, regardless of the question.
7 is such a common guess it is literally used as a force (albeit an unreliable one) in some magic tricks.
Testable prediction made! Will see if/when ASX does this in future.