What does it mean, fundamentally, when something is NOT where it is most likely to be (like Ewasko’s body here, well outside of the most searched zone)? Or more generally when something—permanently—is NOT the way it is most likely to be? Does it mean our assessment of the likelyhoods was wrong?
Not necessarily; it could mean you’re missing relevant data or that your prior is wrong. EDIT: @the gears to ascension I meant that it’s not necessarily the case that our assessment of the likelihoods of the data were wrong despite our posterior being surprised by reality.
What does it mean, fundamentally, when something is NOT where it is most likely to be (like Ewasko’s body here, well outside of the most searched zone)? Or more generally when something—permanently—is NOT the way it is most likely to be? Does it mean our assessment of the likelyhoods was wrong?
Not necessarily; it could mean you’re missing relevant data or that your prior is wrong.
EDIT: @the gears to ascension I meant that it’s not necessarily the case that our assessment of the likelihoods of the data were wrong despite our posterior being surprised by reality.