Not necessarily; it could mean you’re missing relevant data or that your prior is wrong. EDIT: @the gears to ascension I meant that it’s not necessarily the case that our assessment of the likelihoods of the data were wrong despite our posterior being surprised by reality.
Not necessarily; it could mean you’re missing relevant data or that your prior is wrong.
EDIT: @the gears to ascension I meant that it’s not necessarily the case that our assessment of the likelihoods of the data were wrong despite our posterior being surprised by reality.