I don’t have anywhere near enough domain knowledge about the human body to (correctly) evaluate the arguments for and against particular diets, so I figured I’d just run an experiment and see what happened.
I started recording my weight daily simultaneous with beginning the diet [...]
When I started my diet I went to the gym 4-6 days a week, alternating between running and weight-lifting. I currently go to the gym 4-6 days a week, alternating between running and weight-lifting.
So, you started going to the gym a lot and you started measuring your weight daily and and you lost weight and got healthier. (And also happened to change your diet.)
That’s not really an experiment with Paleo. Not unless you’d already been going to the gym like that and paying that much attention to what you ate and how much you weighed.
Edit: I suppose that the “when I started” statement could be read two ways, one of which would imply that you already worked out that hard (6 days per week) prior to paleo. Though it seems odd you’d be able to do so and still be able to lose 20% of your bodyweight in fat, so I’ll assume for now that’s not what it was.
So, you started going to the gym a lot and you started measuring your weight daily and and you lost weight and got healthier. (And also happened to change your diet.)
You aren’t interpreting that sentence correctly. Before and after starting the diet, I was exercising approximately the same amount. Although it is possible that merely increasing the frequency of recording my weight had a (round-about) causal effect on my weight-loss, the magnitude of the effect doesn’t seem very likely.
Although it is possible that merely increasing the frequency of recording my weight had a (round-about) causal effect on my weight-loss, the magnitude of the effect doesn’t seem very likely.
Measuring weight does lead to weight loss- but mostly through unconscious changes in diet and activity level. If you’re consciously changing your diet at the same time, it should wipe out those effects.
Ah. Well then that is a signficant change. How long had you been working out at that level prior to starting the diet?
Like, could you have been in the (1-2 mo.) muscle building phase right before starting paleo, then the weight loss phase kicked in just as you started it? Or had you been working out for years at that level then decided to start paleo?
Since I don’t like the commenting options on your blog, I’m going to respond here to your melatonin experiment. Comparing two periods is statistically dangerous because so many other details might have changed between them. It is good that you are going to do two more periods, but I think you should do many trials of shorter periods, say, one week each. The drawback is that sleep has cumulative aspects.
Gwern suggests that you try smaller doses. I suggest that you try much smaller doses: 0.3mg. Or maybe cut those up.
Since I don’t like the commenting options on your blog, I’m going to respond here to your melatonin experiment.
Is there anything I can (easily) do to fix this?
Comparing two periods is statistically dangerous because so many other details might have changed between them. It is good that you are going to do two more periods, but I think you should do many trials of shorter periods, say, one week each. The drawback is that sleep has cumulative aspects.
The reason I am doing longish trial periods is to test the “addiction/withdrawal objection” to melatonin use. Although, now that you mention it, week long periods should work for this. Also, I was thinking about using the interquartile range to eliminate the outliers from each month for the final analysis. Do you think that would be an appropriate technique?
Gwern suggests that you try smaller doses. I suggest that you try much smaller doses: 0.3mg. Or maybe cut those up.
Yeah, I was planning on trying 3mg, 2mg, and 1mg. Based on your and Gwern’s feedback, I’m probably going to end up testing 3mg, 1mg, and 0.5mg instead.
You can probably turn on “anonymous” commenting, meaning without registration.
What is the limit on doing experiments? I got the impression was that if the next 2 month cycle showed an advantage to melatonin, you were going to take it regularly. But if you plan on doing month long experiments for the next two years, your will avoid my complaint, though I think you would be better off doing shorter experiments.
You don’t need to worry about tolerance until after you have established that the drug works in the short term, so if you can save time by not worrying about it, you should. If you decide you want to use it long term, you should do month long experiments at that point. Note that you have not yet done a withdrawal experiment, though you have done something of a tolerance experiment.
Yes, the interquartile range is a great metric. You should compute it. But you should also compute metrics that are sensitive to outliers. Improving outliers may well be more valuable than improving typical values.
You are anchoring on the doses available in stores. Clinical studies often use 0.01mg. Given what is easily available, I suggest 0.15, 0.6, and 3, an approximate geometric progression. If you can find something smaller, use it and tell me where you found it.
What was your diet like before paleo? Were you cutting out grains, fruit, or simple sugar?
Burritos, sandwiches, pasta, salads, chicken, etc… Affirmative; I cut out grains completely and significantly diminished my sugar intake. I still eat fruit, but less than before.
Well I was really trying to figure out which of these is the important thing to cut out (or if they all are important). I already have low sugar intake but moderate starch intake. I want to figure out whether there would be advantages to cutting down on starch or if eliminating simple sugars already gives me most of the benefits.
ETA: Also, thanks a lot for sharing your data with us! That was an interesting post to read.
I want to figure out whether there would be advantages to cutting down on starch or if eliminating simple sugars already gives me most of the benefits.
The data I collected can’t really unambiguously answer this question; subjectively, my ‘mind-fog’ seems to be most sensitive to the ingestion of simple sugars, so I think that is where the greatest bang-for-the buck lies.
Also, thanks a lot for sharing your data with us! That was an interesting post to read.
In most cases, I’m really not intelligent/knowledgeable enough to make good decisions based primarily on scientific theory. On the other hand, I am fairly conscientious and very patient, so I can get by to some extent by letting the world do the thinking for me (via cheap experimental results). I’m glad that you obtained some amount of value from it.
I don’t have anywhere near enough domain knowledge about the human body to (correctly) evaluate the arguments for and against particular diets, so I figured I’d just run an experiment and see what happened.
This is what happened.
So, you started going to the gym a lot and you started measuring your weight daily and and you lost weight and got healthier. (And also happened to change your diet.)
That’s not really an experiment with Paleo. Not unless you’d already been going to the gym like that and paying that much attention to what you ate and how much you weighed.
Edit: I suppose that the “when I started” statement could be read two ways, one of which would imply that you already worked out that hard (6 days per week) prior to paleo. Though it seems odd you’d be able to do so and still be able to lose 20% of your bodyweight in fat, so I’ll assume for now that’s not what it was.
You aren’t interpreting that sentence correctly. Before and after starting the diet, I was exercising approximately the same amount. Although it is possible that merely increasing the frequency of recording my weight had a (round-about) causal effect on my weight-loss, the magnitude of the effect doesn’t seem very likely.
Measuring weight does lead to weight loss- but mostly through unconscious changes in diet and activity level. If you’re consciously changing your diet at the same time, it should wipe out those effects.
Ah. Well then that is a signficant change. How long had you been working out at that level prior to starting the diet?
Like, could you have been in the (1-2 mo.) muscle building phase right before starting paleo, then the weight loss phase kicked in just as you started it? Or had you been working out for years at that level then decided to start paleo?
Since I don’t like the commenting options on your blog, I’m going to respond here to your melatonin experiment. Comparing two periods is statistically dangerous because so many other details might have changed between them. It is good that you are going to do two more periods, but I think you should do many trials of shorter periods, say, one week each. The drawback is that sleep has cumulative aspects.
Gwern suggests that you try smaller doses. I suggest that you try much smaller doses: 0.3mg. Or maybe cut those up.
Is there anything I can (easily) do to fix this?
The reason I am doing longish trial periods is to test the “addiction/withdrawal objection” to melatonin use. Although, now that you mention it, week long periods should work for this. Also, I was thinking about using the interquartile range to eliminate the outliers from each month for the final analysis. Do you think that would be an appropriate technique?
Yeah, I was planning on trying 3mg, 2mg, and 1mg. Based on your and Gwern’s feedback, I’m probably going to end up testing 3mg, 1mg, and 0.5mg instead.
You can probably turn on “anonymous” commenting, meaning without registration.
What is the limit on doing experiments? I got the impression was that if the next 2 month cycle showed an advantage to melatonin, you were going to take it regularly. But if you plan on doing month long experiments for the next two years, your will avoid my complaint, though I think you would be better off doing shorter experiments.
You don’t need to worry about tolerance until after you have established that the drug works in the short term, so if you can save time by not worrying about it, you should. If you decide you want to use it long term, you should do month long experiments at that point. Note that you have not yet done a withdrawal experiment, though you have done something of a tolerance experiment.
Yes, the interquartile range is a great metric. You should compute it. But you should also compute metrics that are sensitive to outliers. Improving outliers may well be more valuable than improving typical values.
You are anchoring on the doses available in stores. Clinical studies often use 0.01mg. Given what is easily available, I suggest 0.15, 0.6, and 3, an approximate geometric progression. If you can find something smaller, use it and tell me where you found it.
What was your diet like before paleo? Were you cutting out grains, fruit, or simple sugar?
Burritos, sandwiches, pasta, salads, chicken, etc… Affirmative; I cut out grains completely and significantly diminished my sugar intake. I still eat fruit, but less than before.
Well I was really trying to figure out which of these is the important thing to cut out (or if they all are important). I already have low sugar intake but moderate starch intake. I want to figure out whether there would be advantages to cutting down on starch or if eliminating simple sugars already gives me most of the benefits.
ETA: Also, thanks a lot for sharing your data with us! That was an interesting post to read.
The data I collected can’t really unambiguously answer this question; subjectively, my ‘mind-fog’ seems to be most sensitive to the ingestion of simple sugars, so I think that is where the greatest bang-for-the buck lies.
In most cases, I’m really not intelligent/knowledgeable enough to make good decisions based primarily on scientific theory. On the other hand, I am fairly conscientious and very patient, so I can get by to some extent by letting the world do the thinking for me (via cheap experimental results). I’m glad that you obtained some amount of value from it.