notfnofn comments on I turned decision theory problems into memes about trolleys

[notfnofn]

A priori, why should we trust that Omega’s statement even has a well-defined truth value in the XOR-trolley problem? We’re already open to the idea that it could be false.

[Measure]

The problem statement says it’s true (Omega did indeed send the message, and the problem statement says that only happens when the message is true).

I think, in effect, this boils down to Omega telling you “This stranger is a murderous psychopath. You’d better not give them the opportunity.”

[quetzal_rainbow]

In effect, Omega makes you kill people by sending message.

Imagine two populations of agents, Not-Pull and Pull. 100% members of Not-Pull receive the message, don’t pull and kill one person. In Pull population 99% members do not get the message, pull and get zero people killed, 1% receive message, pull and in effect kill 5 people. Being member of Pull population has 0.05 expected casualties and being member of Not-Pull population has 1 expected casualty. Therefore, you should pull.

[notfnofn]

It says ``if and only if this message is true” which would be kind of silly to include if it had to be true

[Tapatakt]

The point is Omega would not send it to you it if it was false and Omega would always send it to you if it was true.

[notfnofn]

Oh I missed the quotations; you’re right

[Valdes]

I also found this hard to parse. I suggest the following edit:

Omega will send you the following message whenever it is true: “Exactly one of the following statements is true: (1) you will not pull the lever (2) the stranger will not pull the lever ” You receive the message. Do you pull the lever?