That’s impossible. You can’t have less than 50% confidence on a binary decision. You can’t literally believe that a coin flip is more likely to select the correct option than you.
Huh? Of course you can. People consistently make worse-than-random choices all the time. Especially in an information-abusive environment such as casinos, advertising, or politics.
In fact, this entire post and concept is based on the idea that without you, the voting populace would make the wrong binary decision.
It is possible to have a less than 50% track-record regarding binary decisions. However, I am doubtful that anyone could reasonably say about any particular binary decision that he/she has a less than 50% confidence in his/her choice. If he/she really thought that, then the thing to to would be to make the opposite choice at which point he/she would have a greater than 50% confidence in that particular choice.
What do you mean you can’t have less than 50% confidence in a decision? The whole idea of expected value is that you can be less than 50% sure that something will have positive consequences, and do it anyway. In this very post the idea is that your vote is almost certainly worthless, but there is a very small chance of a very large effect, and therefore you should vote anyway. But you are much less than 50% sure it will have any positive effect at all. So likewise you can be much less than 50% sure your candidate is the right one.
If you really believe your candidate is less than 50% likely to be the “correct” candidate, you can just vote for the other one. Then you will necessarily have a >50% confidence you voted for the correct candidate. You can’t possibly do worse on a binary decision.
You could vote for the other one, but you might not want to, say e.g. that almost all your friends think that the person is the correct candidate.
Also, when you think of the sentence, “my candidate is less than 50% likely to be the correct candidate,” you are likely to dislike that assertion, and to start thinking of reasons for saying that they are more than 50% likely to be the correct candidate.
You are mistaken. My choices are not to vote for candidate A or to vote for candidate B. My choices are to vote for candidate A, for candidate B, to write in somebody (e.g. Cthulhu), and to not vote at all.
From whose point of view? From my own personal perspective there might well be a noticeable difference in utility between writing in Cthulhu and just avoiding the voting station.
In any case, since there are at least three alternatives, one of them does not necessarily have to have >50% confidence.
The fact that you count it as not voting does not mean it is in fact not voting, and it especially does not mean that the person is choosing not to vote (they are not choosing that unless they think they are not voting.)
Well, suppose I think the probability that Johnson would be the best president is 40%, the probability that Clinton would be is 30%, that Stein would be is 20%, and that Trump would be is 10%...
In a first past the post election third parties are irrelevant.
More specifically, the calculations above apply to a close election. 538 gives Johnson a less than 0.01% chance of winning. Obviously the probability of you being the tie breaking vote is many many orders of magnitude smaller than is worth calculating.
Third parties aren’t stable. They can appear, but they inevitably split the vote. They always hurt their cause more than help it. Unless they are so popular they can outright replace one of the parties.
That’s impossible. You can’t have less than 50% confidence on a binary decision. You can’t literally believe that a coin flip is more likely to select the correct option than you.
Huh? Of course you can. People consistently make worse-than-random choices all the time. Especially in an information-abusive environment such as casinos, advertising, or politics.
In fact, this entire post and concept is based on the idea that without you, the voting populace would make the wrong binary decision.
It is possible to have a less than 50% track-record regarding binary decisions. However, I am doubtful that anyone could reasonably say about any particular binary decision that he/she has a less than 50% confidence in his/her choice. If he/she really thought that, then the thing to to would be to make the opposite choice at which point he/she would have a greater than 50% confidence in that particular choice.
What do you mean you can’t have less than 50% confidence in a decision? The whole idea of expected value is that you can be less than 50% sure that something will have positive consequences, and do it anyway. In this very post the idea is that your vote is almost certainly worthless, but there is a very small chance of a very large effect, and therefore you should vote anyway. But you are much less than 50% sure it will have any positive effect at all. So likewise you can be much less than 50% sure your candidate is the right one.
If you really believe your candidate is less than 50% likely to be the “correct” candidate, you can just vote for the other one. Then you will necessarily have a >50% confidence you voted for the correct candidate. You can’t possibly do worse on a binary decision.
You could vote for the other one, but you might not want to, say e.g. that almost all your friends think that the person is the correct candidate.
Also, when you think of the sentence, “my candidate is less than 50% likely to be the correct candidate,” you are likely to dislike that assertion, and to start thinking of reasons for saying that they are more than 50% likely to be the correct candidate.
You are confusing “confidence” and “the probability you are voting for the correct candidate”. These are quite different things.
From your subjective view the expected value of a vote is always positive. That does not mean that it’s actually positive—see Cromwell.
Yes, from your subjective view your vote is always positive. Thus you should always vote.
You are mistaken. My choices are not to vote for candidate A or to vote for candidate B. My choices are to vote for candidate A, for candidate B, to write in somebody (e.g. Cthulhu), and to not vote at all.
No, the choice is to vote for your preferred candidate, or to not vote. Write ins count as “not voting”.
From whose point of view? From my own personal perspective there might well be a noticeable difference in utility between writing in Cthulhu and just avoiding the voting station.
In any case, since there are at least three alternatives, one of them does not necessarily have to have >50% confidence.
The fact that you count it as not voting does not mean it is in fact not voting, and it especially does not mean that the person is choosing not to vote (they are not choosing that unless they think they are not voting.)
Well, suppose I think the probability that Johnson would be the best president is 40%, the probability that Clinton would be is 30%, that Stein would be is 20%, and that Trump would be is 10%...
In a first past the post election third parties are irrelevant.
More specifically, the calculations above apply to a close election. 538 gives Johnson a less than 0.01% chance of winning. Obviously the probability of you being the tie breaking vote is many many orders of magnitude smaller than is worth calculating.
*Looks at the UK*
Are they, now?
Third parties aren’t stable. They can appear, but they inevitably split the vote. They always hurt their cause more than help it. Unless they are so popular they can outright replace one of the parties.
Huh? You mean for their cause it’s better to just curl up and die, but refusing to do so subverts their cause..?
Basically yes. First Past The Post does not satisfy the criteria Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives.
Looking at reality (as opposed to theoretical abstractions), this does not seem to be true.