What do you mean you can’t have less than 50% confidence in a decision? The whole idea of expected value is that you can be less than 50% sure that something will have positive consequences, and do it anyway. In this very post the idea is that your vote is almost certainly worthless, but there is a very small chance of a very large effect, and therefore you should vote anyway. But you are much less than 50% sure it will have any positive effect at all. So likewise you can be much less than 50% sure your candidate is the right one.
If you really believe your candidate is less than 50% likely to be the “correct” candidate, you can just vote for the other one. Then you will necessarily have a >50% confidence you voted for the correct candidate. You can’t possibly do worse on a binary decision.
You could vote for the other one, but you might not want to, say e.g. that almost all your friends think that the person is the correct candidate.
Also, when you think of the sentence, “my candidate is less than 50% likely to be the correct candidate,” you are likely to dislike that assertion, and to start thinking of reasons for saying that they are more than 50% likely to be the correct candidate.
What do you mean you can’t have less than 50% confidence in a decision? The whole idea of expected value is that you can be less than 50% sure that something will have positive consequences, and do it anyway. In this very post the idea is that your vote is almost certainly worthless, but there is a very small chance of a very large effect, and therefore you should vote anyway. But you are much less than 50% sure it will have any positive effect at all. So likewise you can be much less than 50% sure your candidate is the right one.
If you really believe your candidate is less than 50% likely to be the “correct” candidate, you can just vote for the other one. Then you will necessarily have a >50% confidence you voted for the correct candidate. You can’t possibly do worse on a binary decision.
You could vote for the other one, but you might not want to, say e.g. that almost all your friends think that the person is the correct candidate.
Also, when you think of the sentence, “my candidate is less than 50% likely to be the correct candidate,” you are likely to dislike that assertion, and to start thinking of reasons for saying that they are more than 50% likely to be the correct candidate.