You are mistaken. My choices are not to vote for candidate A or to vote for candidate B. My choices are to vote for candidate A, for candidate B, to write in somebody (e.g. Cthulhu), and to not vote at all.
From whose point of view? From my own personal perspective there might well be a noticeable difference in utility between writing in Cthulhu and just avoiding the voting station.
In any case, since there are at least three alternatives, one of them does not necessarily have to have >50% confidence.
The fact that you count it as not voting does not mean it is in fact not voting, and it especially does not mean that the person is choosing not to vote (they are not choosing that unless they think they are not voting.)
You are confusing “confidence” and “the probability you are voting for the correct candidate”. These are quite different things.
From your subjective view the expected value of a vote is always positive. That does not mean that it’s actually positive—see Cromwell.
Yes, from your subjective view your vote is always positive. Thus you should always vote.
You are mistaken. My choices are not to vote for candidate A or to vote for candidate B. My choices are to vote for candidate A, for candidate B, to write in somebody (e.g. Cthulhu), and to not vote at all.
No, the choice is to vote for your preferred candidate, or to not vote. Write ins count as “not voting”.
From whose point of view? From my own personal perspective there might well be a noticeable difference in utility between writing in Cthulhu and just avoiding the voting station.
In any case, since there are at least three alternatives, one of them does not necessarily have to have >50% confidence.
The fact that you count it as not voting does not mean it is in fact not voting, and it especially does not mean that the person is choosing not to vote (they are not choosing that unless they think they are not voting.)