When you say that “our civilization was inadequate [to the task of suppressing COVID-19]”, I just want to emphasize that “our civilization” means only the USA, not Western civilization in general. The EU got hit harder at first and has since then performed well; you can blame them for not taking it seriously early enough, but you certainly can’t accuse them of the level of dysfunction you see here.
In general, I like the framing that the United States is running on the worst legacy code of any Western democracy; the UK’s is older but was more amenable to modern patches. Never underestimate the degree to which the US government is just the least efficient government of any developed nation.
The series of updates is clearly focused on the United States. I agree that Europe seems to have been less inadequate. I don’t think it covered itself in glory.
I’m not sure I understand your response. Yes, the series of updates is clearly focused on the United States, but your claim is that “civilization” explains why the US handled Covid-19 so poorly. Since human civilization is a factor present in all countries in the world, the fact that other countries handled Covid-19 very differently constitutes evidence against the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis. That your post wasn’t focused on these other countries seems irrelevant.
your claim is that “civilization” explains why the US handled Covid-19 so poorly
The claim is not that civilization itself is inadequate. It’s that a particular civilization is inadequate.
the fact that other countries handled Covid-19 very differently constitutes evidence against the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis
The “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis is not that civilization = bad. It’s that a particular civilization is not living up to the standard of what you would expect from a well-functioning civilization.
Maybe it seems odd to describe different countries as different civilizations, but the fact that different countries have different outcomes seems very much in line with the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis, as I understand Zvi to be using the term.
When Eliezer and others talk about “civilizational inadequacy”, they generally refer to something much broader than the United States. Eliezer mentions the example of Japan’s monetary policy, for instance. He also contrasts the civilizational inadequacy thesis with “the view that in general, on most issues, the average opinion of humanity will be a better and less biased guide to the truth than my own judgment.” (emphasis added) And he relies (I think) on that thesis to draw conclusions about how he expects humanity to handle AI risk; such an inference wouldn’t work if the thesis was restricted to the prevailing culture or institutions of a particular country. At the very least, if usage deviates from this established meaning I think this should be made clear.
The way I see it (I live in the UK) is that most western European governments are able to respond to a sufficiently unambiguous warning from experts that disaster is coming within a month if we carry on as normal, and react strongly to that warning, but not much more. That’s why we get blunt instruments like local lockdowns and a slow-to-scale contact tracing system that could easily be made to work with, say 20 times its current budget.
That’s because the Morituri Nolumus Mori effect applies everywhere, but has to combine with some basic collective ability to perceive physical facts to work properly, as you say and I argued in that post.
The MNM effect is what we credit instead of clever planning or reasoning, for why things aren’t as bad as they could be—the differences between e.g. America and Germany are due to any level of planning at all
I think the extreme version of your ‘no ability to perceive physical facts’ claim applies to some US states, the US federal government and maybe Brazil and the various developing countries that just don’t have good enough information flow for people to stay informed, but doesn’t apply to Europe, let alone East Asia.
But I strongly suspect that when things do get New York-bad in those other states, we will see individual and state responses trying to keep in under control that will bring the R back to near-1, even if it seems hopeless right now.
The Morituri Nolumus Mori effect, as a reminder, is the thesis that governments and individuals have a consistent, short-term reaction to danger which is stronger than many of us suspected, though not sustainable in the absence of an imminent threat. This effect is just such a hard limit—it can’t do very much except work as a stronger than expected brake. And something like it has been proposed as an explanation, not just by me two months ago but by Will MacAskill and Toby Ord, for why we have already avoided the worst disasters. Here’s Toby’s recent interview:
When you say that “our civilization was inadequate [to the task of suppressing COVID-19]”, I just want to emphasize that “our civilization” means only the USA, not Western civilization in general. The EU got hit harder at first and has since then performed well; you can blame them for not taking it seriously early enough, but you certainly can’t accuse them of the level of dysfunction you see here.
In general, I like the framing that the United States is running on the worst legacy code of any Western democracy; the UK’s is older but was more amenable to modern patches. Never underestimate the degree to which the US government is just the least efficient government of any developed nation.
The series of updates is clearly focused on the United States. I agree that Europe seems to have been less inadequate. I don’t think it covered itself in glory.
I’m not sure I understand your response. Yes, the series of updates is clearly focused on the United States, but your claim is that “civilization” explains why the US handled Covid-19 so poorly. Since human civilization is a factor present in all countries in the world, the fact that other countries handled Covid-19 very differently constitutes evidence against the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis. That your post wasn’t focused on these other countries seems irrelevant.
The claim is not that civilization itself is inadequate. It’s that a particular civilization is inadequate.
The “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis is not that civilization = bad. It’s that a particular civilization is not living up to the standard of what you would expect from a well-functioning civilization.
Maybe it seems odd to describe different countries as different civilizations, but the fact that different countries have different outcomes seems very much in line with the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis, as I understand Zvi to be using the term.
When Eliezer and others talk about “civilizational inadequacy”, they generally refer to something much broader than the United States. Eliezer mentions the example of Japan’s monetary policy, for instance. He also contrasts the civilizational inadequacy thesis with “the view that in general, on most issues, the average opinion of humanity will be a better and less biased guide to the truth than my own judgment.” (emphasis added) And he relies (I think) on that thesis to draw conclusions about how he expects humanity to handle AI risk; such an inference wouldn’t work if the thesis was restricted to the prevailing culture or institutions of a particular country. At the very least, if usage deviates from this established meaning I think this should be made clear.
The way I see it (I live in the UK) is that most western European governments are able to respond to a sufficiently unambiguous warning from experts that disaster is coming within a month if we carry on as normal, and react strongly to that warning, but not much more. That’s why we get blunt instruments like local lockdowns and a slow-to-scale contact tracing system that could easily be made to work with, say 20 times its current budget.
That’s because the Morituri Nolumus Mori effect applies everywhere, but has to combine with some basic collective ability to perceive physical facts to work properly, as you say and I argued in that post.
I think the extreme version of your ‘no ability to perceive physical facts’ claim applies to some US states, the US federal government and maybe Brazil and the various developing countries that just don’t have good enough information flow for people to stay informed, but doesn’t apply to Europe, let alone East Asia.
But I strongly suspect that when things do get New York-bad in those other states, we will see individual and state responses trying to keep in under control that will bring the R back to near-1, even if it seems hopeless right now.
being much larger it often makes sense to pay more attention to the state by state breakdown for comparison to, say, EU countries.