I’m not sure I understand your response. Yes, the series of updates is clearly focused on the United States, but your claim is that “civilization” explains why the US handled Covid-19 so poorly. Since human civilization is a factor present in all countries in the world, the fact that other countries handled Covid-19 very differently constitutes evidence against the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis. That your post wasn’t focused on these other countries seems irrelevant.
your claim is that “civilization” explains why the US handled Covid-19 so poorly
The claim is not that civilization itself is inadequate. It’s that a particular civilization is inadequate.
the fact that other countries handled Covid-19 very differently constitutes evidence against the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis
The “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis is not that civilization = bad. It’s that a particular civilization is not living up to the standard of what you would expect from a well-functioning civilization.
Maybe it seems odd to describe different countries as different civilizations, but the fact that different countries have different outcomes seems very much in line with the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis, as I understand Zvi to be using the term.
When Eliezer and others talk about “civilizational inadequacy”, they generally refer to something much broader than the United States. Eliezer mentions the example of Japan’s monetary policy, for instance. He also contrasts the civilizational inadequacy thesis with “the view that in general, on most issues, the average opinion of humanity will be a better and less biased guide to the truth than my own judgment.” (emphasis added) And he relies (I think) on that thesis to draw conclusions about how he expects humanity to handle AI risk; such an inference wouldn’t work if the thesis was restricted to the prevailing culture or institutions of a particular country. At the very least, if usage deviates from this established meaning I think this should be made clear.
I’m not sure I understand your response. Yes, the series of updates is clearly focused on the United States, but your claim is that “civilization” explains why the US handled Covid-19 so poorly. Since human civilization is a factor present in all countries in the world, the fact that other countries handled Covid-19 very differently constitutes evidence against the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis. That your post wasn’t focused on these other countries seems irrelevant.
The claim is not that civilization itself is inadequate. It’s that a particular civilization is inadequate.
The “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis is not that civilization = bad. It’s that a particular civilization is not living up to the standard of what you would expect from a well-functioning civilization.
Maybe it seems odd to describe different countries as different civilizations, but the fact that different countries have different outcomes seems very much in line with the “civilizational inadequacy” hypothesis, as I understand Zvi to be using the term.
When Eliezer and others talk about “civilizational inadequacy”, they generally refer to something much broader than the United States. Eliezer mentions the example of Japan’s monetary policy, for instance. He also contrasts the civilizational inadequacy thesis with “the view that in general, on most issues, the average opinion of humanity will be a better and less biased guide to the truth than my own judgment.” (emphasis added) And he relies (I think) on that thesis to draw conclusions about how he expects humanity to handle AI risk; such an inference wouldn’t work if the thesis was restricted to the prevailing culture or institutions of a particular country. At the very least, if usage deviates from this established meaning I think this should be made clear.