You could instead pay me $10k now, with the understanding that I’ll pay you $20k later in 2028 unless AGI has been achieved in which case I keep the money… but then why would I do that when I could just take out a loan for $10k at low interest rate?
We could set up the bet such that it would involve you losing/gaining no money in expectation under your views, whereas you would lose money in expectation with a loan? Also, note the bet I proposed above was about ASI as defined by Metaculus, not AGI.
I gain money in expectation with loans, because I don’t expect to have to pay them back.
I see. I was implicitly assuming a nearterm loan or one with an interest rate linked to economic growth, but you might be able to get a longterm loan with a fixed interest rate.
What specific bet are you offering?
I transfer 10 k today-€ to you now, and you transfer 20 k today-€ to me if there is no ASI as defined by Metaculus on date X, which has to be sufficiently far away for the bet to be better than your best loan. X could be 12.0 years (= LN(0.9*20*10^3/(10*10^3))/LN(1 + 0.050)) from now assuming a 90 % chance I win the bet, and an annual growth of my investment of 5.0 %. However, if the cost-effectiveness of my donations also decreases 5 %, then I can only go as far as 6.00 years (= 12.0/2).
I also guess the stock market will grow faster than suggested by historical data, so I would only want to have X roughly as far as in 2028. So, at the end of the day, it looks like you are right that you would be better off getting a loan.
I also guess the stock market will grow faster than suggested by historical data, so I would only want to have X roughly as far as in 2028.
Here is a bet which would be worth it for me even with more distant resolution dates. If, until the end of 2028, Metaculus’ question about ASI:
Resolves with a given date, I transfer to you 10 k 2025-January-$.
Does not resolve, you transfer to me 10 k 2025-January-$.
Resolves ambiguously, nothing happens.
This bet involves fixed prices, so I think it would be neutral for you in terms of purchasing power right after resolution if you had the end of 2028 as your median date of ASI. I would transfer you nominally more money if you won than you nominally would transfer to me if I won, as there would tend to be more inflation if you won. I think mid 2028 was your median date of ASI, so the bet resolving at the end of 2028 may make it worth it for you. If not, it can be moved forward. It would still be the case that the purchasing power of a nominal amount of money would decrease faster after resolution if you won than if I did. However, you could mitigate this by investing your profits from the bet if you win.
The bet may still be worse than some loans, but you can always make the bet and ask for such loans?
Sorry for the lack of clarity! “today-$” refers to January 2025. For example, assuming prices increased by 10 % from this month until December 2028, the winner would receive 11 k$ (= 10*10^3*(1 + 0.1)).
We could set up the bet such that it would involve you losing/gaining no money in expectation under your views, whereas you would lose money in expectation with a loan? Also, note the bet I proposed above was about ASI as defined by Metaculus, not AGI.
I gain money in expectation with loans, because I don’t expect to have to pay them back. What specific bet are you offering?
I see. I was implicitly assuming a nearterm loan or one with an interest rate linked to economic growth, but you might be able to get a longterm loan with a fixed interest rate.
I transfer 10 k today-€ to you now, and you transfer 20 k today-€ to me if there is no ASI as defined by Metaculus on date X, which has to be sufficiently far away for the bet to be better than your best loan. X could be 12.0 years (= LN(0.9*20*10^3/(10*10^3))/LN(1 + 0.050)) from now assuming a 90 % chance I win the bet, and an annual growth of my investment of 5.0 %. However, if the cost-effectiveness of my donations also decreases 5 %, then I can only go as far as 6.00 years (= 12.0/2).
I also guess the stock market will grow faster than suggested by historical data, so I would only want to have X roughly as far as in 2028. So, at the end of the day, it looks like you are right that you would be better off getting a loan.
Thanks for doing the math on this and changing your mind! <3
You are welcome!
Here is a bet which would be worth it for me even with more distant resolution dates. If, until the end of 2028, Metaculus’ question about ASI:
Resolves with a given date, I transfer to you 10 k 2025-January-$.
Does not resolve, you transfer to me 10 k 2025-January-$.
Resolves ambiguously, nothing happens.
This bet involves fixed prices, so I think it would be neutral for you in terms of purchasing power right after resolution if you had the end of 2028 as your median date of ASI. I would transfer you nominally more money if you won than you nominally would transfer to me if I won, as there would tend to be more inflation if you won. I think mid 2028 was your median date of ASI, so the bet resolving at the end of 2028 may make it worth it for you. If not, it can be moved forward. It would still be the case that the purchasing power of a nominal amount of money would decrease faster after resolution if you won than if I did. However, you could mitigate this by investing your profits from the bet if you win.
The bet may still be worse than some loans, but you can always make the bet and ask for such loans?
I think I still don’t understand, sorry. Does “today” refer to the date the metaculus question resolves, or to today? What does today-$ mean?
Sorry for the lack of clarity! “today-$” refers to January 2025. For example, assuming prices increased by 10 % from this month until December 2028, the winner would receive 11 k$ (= 10*10^3*(1 + 0.1)).