I gain money in expectation with loans, because I don’t expect to have to pay them back.
I see. I was implicitly assuming a nearterm loan or one with an interest rate linked to economic growth, but you might be able to get a longterm loan with a fixed interest rate.
What specific bet are you offering?
I transfer 10 k today-€ to you now, and you transfer 20 k today-€ to me if there is no ASI as defined by Metaculus on date X, which has to be sufficiently far away for the bet to be better than your best loan. X could be 12.0 years (= LN(0.9*20*10^3/(10*10^3))/LN(1 + 0.050)) from now assuming a 90 % chance I win the bet, and an annual growth of my investment of 5.0 %. However, if the cost-effectiveness of my donations also decreases 5 %, then I can only go as far as 6.00 years (= 12.0/2).
I also guess the stock market will grow faster than suggested by historical data, so I would only want to have X roughly as far as in 2028. So, at the end of the day, it looks like you are right that you would be better off getting a loan.
I see. I was implicitly assuming a nearterm loan or one with an interest rate linked to economic growth, but you might be able to get a longterm loan with a fixed interest rate.
I transfer 10 k today-€ to you now, and you transfer 20 k today-€ to me if there is no ASI as defined by Metaculus on date X, which has to be sufficiently far away for the bet to be better than your best loan. X could be 12.0 years (= LN(0.9*20*10^3/(10*10^3))/LN(1 + 0.050)) from now assuming a 90 % chance I win the bet, and an annual growth of my investment of 5.0 %. However, if the cost-effectiveness of my donations also decreases 5 %, then I can only go as far as 6.00 years (= 12.0/2).
I also guess the stock market will grow faster than suggested by historical data, so I would only want to have X roughly as far as in 2028. So, at the end of the day, it looks like you are right that you would be better off getting a loan.
Thanks for doing the math on this and changing your mind! <3