As previously discussed a couple times on this website, it’s not rational for me to make bets on my beliefs about these things. Because I either won’t be around to collect if I win, or won’t value the money nearly as much. And because I can get better odds on the public market simply by taking out a loan.
How about a bet on whether there appears to be a clear path to X instead? Or even more objectively some milestone that will probably be hit before we actually hit X.
@Daniel Kokotajlo what odds would you give me for global energy consumption growing 100x by the end of 2028? I’d be happy to bet low hundreds of USD on the “no” side.
ETA: to be more concrete I’d put $100 on the “no” side at 10:1 odds but I’m interested if you have a more aggressive offer.
As previously discussed a couple times on this website, it’s not rational for me to make bets on my beliefs about these things. Because I either won’t be around to collect if I win, or won’t value the money nearly as much. And because I can get better odds on the public market simply by taking out a loan.
For context, Daniel wrote Is this a good way to bet on short timelines? (which I didn’t know about when writing this comment) 3 years ago.
HT Alex Lawsen for the link.
How about a bet on whether there appears to be a clear path to X instead? Or even more objectively some milestone that will probably be hit before we actually hit X.
Yep, I love betting about stuff like that. Got any suggestions for how to objectively operationalize it? Or a trusted third party arbiter?