As previously discussed a couple times on this website, it’s not rational for me to make bets on my beliefs about these things. Because I either won’t be around to collect if I win, or won’t value the money nearly as much. And because I can get better odds on the public market simply by taking out a loan.
How about a bet on whether there appears to be a clear path to X instead? Or even more objectively some milestone that will probably be hit before we actually hit X.
As previously discussed a couple times on this website, it’s not rational for me to make bets on my beliefs about these things. Because I either won’t be around to collect if I win, or won’t value the money nearly as much. And because I can get better odds on the public market simply by taking out a loan.
For context, Daniel wrote Is this a good way to bet on short timelines? (which I didn’t know about when writing this comment) 3 years ago.
HT Alex Lawsen for the link.
How about a bet on whether there appears to be a clear path to X instead? Or even more objectively some milestone that will probably be hit before we actually hit X.
Yep, I love betting about stuff like that. Got any suggestions for how to objectively operationalize it? Or a trusted third party arbiter?