Why slow hardware takeoff (just 106 in 4 years, though measuring in dollars is confusing)? I expect it a bit later, but faster, because nanotech breaks manufacturing tech level continuity, channeling theoretical research directly, and with reasonable amount of compute performing relevant research is not a bottleneck. This would go from modern circuit fabs to disassembling the moon and fueling it with fusion (or something of this sort of level of impact), immediately and without any intermediate industrial development process.
I don’t think the model applies once you get to strongly superhuman systems—so, by mid-2027 in the scenario depicted. At that point, yeah, I’d expect the whole economy to be furiously bootstrapping towards nanotech or maybe even there already. Then the dissassemblies begin.
Also, as I mentioned, I think the model might overestimate the speed at which new AI advances can be rolled out into the economy, and converted into higher GDP and more/better hardware. Thus I think we completely agree.
Why slow hardware takeoff (just 106 in 4 years, though measuring in dollars is confusing)? I expect it a bit later, but faster, because nanotech breaks manufacturing tech level continuity, channeling theoretical research directly, and with reasonable amount of compute performing relevant research is not a bottleneck. This would go from modern circuit fabs to disassembling the moon and fueling it with fusion (or something of this sort of level of impact), immediately and without any intermediate industrial development process.
I don’t think the model applies once you get to strongly superhuman systems—so, by mid-2027 in the scenario depicted. At that point, yeah, I’d expect the whole economy to be furiously bootstrapping towards nanotech or maybe even there already. Then the dissassemblies begin.
Also, as I mentioned, I think the model might overestimate the speed at which new AI advances can be rolled out into the economy, and converted into higher GDP and more/better hardware. Thus I think we completely agree.