“Way past that” meaning “so exasperated with Tim that rational discourse seems just not worth it”? Hey, I can sympathize. Been there, done that.
But still, it annoys me when people are attacked by mocking something that they didn’t say, but that their caricature should have said (in a more amusing branch of reality).
It annoys me more when that behavior is applauded.
And it strikes me as deeply ironic when it happens here.
But still, it annoys me when people are attacked by mocking something that they didn’t say, but that their caricature should have said (in a more amusing branch of reality)
That’s very neatly put.
I’m not dead certain it’s a fair description of Vladimir Nesov said, but describes a lot of behavior I’ve seen. And there’s a parallel version about the branches of reality which allow for easier superiority and/or more outrage.
The error Tim makes time and again is finding shallow analogies between activity of people concerned with existential risk and doomsday cults, and loudly announcing them, lamenting that it’s not proper that this important information is so rarely considered. Yet the analogies are obvious and obviously irrelevant. My caricature simply followed the pattern.
Talking about obviousness as if it was inherent in a conclusion is typical mind projection fallacy. What it generally implies (and what I think you mean) is that any sufficiently rational person would see it; but when lots of people don’t see it, calling it obvious is against social convention (it’s claiming higher rationality and thus social status than your audience). In this case I think that to your average reader the analogies aren’t obviously irrelevant, even though I personally do find them obviously irrelevant.
When you’re trying to argue that something is the case (ie. that the analogies are irrelevant) the difference between what you are arguing being OBVIOUS and it merely being POSSIBLE is extremely vast.
You made a claim that they were obviously irrelevant.
The respondant expressed uncerainty as to their irrelevance “They may be irrelevant.” as opposed to the certainty in “The analogies are obvious.” and “They are not obviously irrelevant.”
That is a distinction between something being claimed as obvious and the same thing being seen as doubtful.
If you do not wish to explain a point there are many better options* than inaccurately calling it obvious. For example, linking to a previous explanation.
*in rationality terms. In argumentation terms, these techniques are often inferior to the technique of the emperor’s tailors
The error Tim makes time and again is finding shallow analogies between activity of people concerned with existential risk and doomsday cults, and loudly announcing them, lamenting that it’s not proper that this important information is so rarely considered. Yet the analogies are obvious and obviously irrelevant.
Uh, they are not “obviously irrelevant”. The SIAI behaves a bit like other DOOM-mongering organisations have done—and a bit like other FUD marketing organisations have done.
Understanding the level of vulnerability of the human psyche to the DOOM virus is a pretty critical part of assessing what level of paranoia about the topic is reasonable.
It is, in fact very easy to imagine how a bunch of intrepid “friendly folk” who think they are out to save the world—might—in the service of their cause—exaggerate the risks, in the hope of getting attention, help and funds.
Indeed, such an organisation is most likely to be founded by those who have extreme views about the risks, attract others who share similar extreme views, and then have a hard time convincing the rest of the world that they are, in fact, correct.
There are sociological and memetic explanations for the “THE END IS NIGH” phenomenon that are more-or-less independent of the actual value of p(DOOM). I think these should be studied more, and applied to this case—so that we can better see what is left over.
There has been some existing study of DOOM-mongering. There is also the associated Messiah complex—an intense desire to save others. With the rise of the modern doomsday “outfits”, I think more study of these phenomenon is warranted.
Sometimes it is fear that is the mind-killer. FUD marketing exploits this to help part marks from their money. THE END OF THE WORLD is big and scary—a fear superstimulus—and there is a long tradition of using it to move power around and achieve personal ends—and the phenomena spreads around virally.
I appreciate that this will probably turn the stomachs of the faithful—but without even exploring the issue, you can’t competently defend the community against such an analysis—because you don’t know to what extent it is true—because you haven’t even looked into it.
“Way past that” meaning “so exasperated with Tim that rational discourse seems just not worth it”? Hey, I can sympathize. Been there, done that.
But still, it annoys me when people are attacked by mocking something that they didn’t say, but that their caricature should have said (in a more amusing branch of reality).
It annoys me more when that behavior is applauded.
And it strikes me as deeply ironic when it happens here.
That’s very neatly put.
I’m not dead certain it’s a fair description of Vladimir Nesov said, but describes a lot of behavior I’ve seen. And there’s a parallel version about the branches of reality which allow for easier superiority and/or more outrage.
The error Tim makes time and again is finding shallow analogies between activity of people concerned with existential risk and doomsday cults, and loudly announcing them, lamenting that it’s not proper that this important information is so rarely considered. Yet the analogies are obvious and obviously irrelevant. My caricature simply followed the pattern.
The analogies are obvious. They may be irrelevant. They are not obviously irrelevant.
Too fine a distinction to argue, wouldn’t you agree?
Talking about obviousness as if it was inherent in a conclusion is typical mind projection fallacy. What it generally implies (and what I think you mean) is that any sufficiently rational person would see it; but when lots of people don’t see it, calling it obvious is against social convention (it’s claiming higher rationality and thus social status than your audience). In this case I think that to your average reader the analogies aren’t obviously irrelevant, even though I personally do find them obviously irrelevant.
When you’re trying to argue that something is the case (ie. that the analogies are irrelevant) the difference between what you are arguing being OBVIOUS and it merely being POSSIBLE is extremely vast.
You seem to confuse the level of certainty with difficulty of discerning it.
You made a claim that they were obviously irrelevant.
The respondant expressed uncerainty as to their irrelevance “They may be irrelevant.” as opposed to the certainty in “The analogies are obvious.” and “They are not obviously irrelevant.”
That is a distinction between something being claimed as obvious and the same thing being seen as doubtful.
If you do not wish to explain a point there are many better options* than inaccurately calling it obvious. For example, linking to a previous explanation.
*in rationality terms. In argumentation terms, these techniques are often inferior to the technique of the emperor’s tailors
Uh, they are not “obviously irrelevant”. The SIAI behaves a bit like other DOOM-mongering organisations have done—and a bit like other FUD marketing organisations have done.
Understanding the level of vulnerability of the human psyche to the DOOM virus is a pretty critical part of assessing what level of paranoia about the topic is reasonable.
It is, in fact very easy to imagine how a bunch of intrepid “friendly folk” who think they are out to save the world—might—in the service of their cause—exaggerate the risks, in the hope of getting attention, help and funds.
Indeed, such an organisation is most likely to be founded by those who have extreme views about the risks, attract others who share similar extreme views, and then have a hard time convincing the rest of the world that they are, in fact, correct.
There are sociological and memetic explanations for the “THE END IS NIGH” phenomenon that are more-or-less independent of the actual value of p(DOOM). I think these should be studied more, and applied to this case—so that we can better see what is left over.
There has been some existing study of DOOM-mongering. There is also the associated Messiah complex—an intense desire to save others. With the rise of the modern doomsday “outfits”, I think more study of these phenomenon is warranted.
Sometimes it is fear that is the mind-killer. FUD marketing exploits this to help part marks from their money. THE END OF THE WORLD is big and scary—a fear superstimulus—and there is a long tradition of using it to move power around and achieve personal ends—and the phenomena spreads around virally.
I appreciate that this will probably turn the stomachs of the faithful—but without even exploring the issue, you can’t competently defend the community against such an analysis—because you don’t know to what extent it is true—because you haven’t even looked into it.