The error Tim makes time and again is finding shallow analogies between activity of people concerned with existential risk and doomsday cults, and loudly announcing them, lamenting that it’s not proper that this important information is so rarely considered. Yet the analogies are obvious and obviously irrelevant.
Uh, they are not “obviously irrelevant”. The SIAI behaves a bit like other DOOM-mongering organisations have done—and a bit like other FUD marketing organisations have done.
Understanding the level of vulnerability of the human psyche to the DOOM virus is a pretty critical part of assessing what level of paranoia about the topic is reasonable.
It is, in fact very easy to imagine how a bunch of intrepid “friendly folk” who think they are out to save the world—might—in the service of their cause—exaggerate the risks, in the hope of getting attention, help and funds.
Indeed, such an organisation is most likely to be founded by those who have extreme views about the risks, attract others who share similar extreme views, and then have a hard time convincing the rest of the world that they are, in fact, correct.
There are sociological and memetic explanations for the “THE END IS NIGH” phenomenon that are more-or-less independent of the actual value of p(DOOM). I think these should be studied more, and applied to this case—so that we can better see what is left over.
There has been some existing study of DOOM-mongering. There is also the associated Messiah complex—an intense desire to save others. With the rise of the modern doomsday “outfits”, I think more study of these phenomenon is warranted.
Sometimes it is fear that is the mind-killer. FUD marketing exploits this to help part marks from their money. THE END OF THE WORLD is big and scary—a fear superstimulus—and there is a long tradition of using it to move power around and achieve personal ends—and the phenomena spreads around virally.
I appreciate that this will probably turn the stomachs of the faithful—but without even exploring the issue, you can’t competently defend the community against such an analysis—because you don’t know to what extent it is true—because you haven’t even looked into it.
Uh, they are not “obviously irrelevant”. The SIAI behaves a bit like other DOOM-mongering organisations have done—and a bit like other FUD marketing organisations have done.
Understanding the level of vulnerability of the human psyche to the DOOM virus is a pretty critical part of assessing what level of paranoia about the topic is reasonable.
It is, in fact very easy to imagine how a bunch of intrepid “friendly folk” who think they are out to save the world—might—in the service of their cause—exaggerate the risks, in the hope of getting attention, help and funds.
Indeed, such an organisation is most likely to be founded by those who have extreme views about the risks, attract others who share similar extreme views, and then have a hard time convincing the rest of the world that they are, in fact, correct.
There are sociological and memetic explanations for the “THE END IS NIGH” phenomenon that are more-or-less independent of the actual value of p(DOOM). I think these should be studied more, and applied to this case—so that we can better see what is left over.
There has been some existing study of DOOM-mongering. There is also the associated Messiah complex—an intense desire to save others. With the rise of the modern doomsday “outfits”, I think more study of these phenomenon is warranted.
Sometimes it is fear that is the mind-killer. FUD marketing exploits this to help part marks from their money. THE END OF THE WORLD is big and scary—a fear superstimulus—and there is a long tradition of using it to move power around and achieve personal ends—and the phenomena spreads around virally.
I appreciate that this will probably turn the stomachs of the faithful—but without even exploring the issue, you can’t competently defend the community against such an analysis—because you don’t know to what extent it is true—because you haven’t even looked into it.