CDC Announces Plan To Send Every U.S. Household Pamphlet On Probabilistic Thinking
Walensky added that if Americans took away one easy lesson from the pamphlet, she hoped it would be P(H|E) = (P(E|H) * P(H)) / P(E).
Seriously, do this.
P(You will get covid if you go to that party) = P(you go to that party if you get covid)*P(you get covid)/P(you go to that party)***
Doesn’t seem all that useful in this form.
It seems like the key info is:
The chance other people going have covid**
and the chance you will get it from them.*
*The obvious thing to change, by:
having the party outside
(or not going)
**So, have people get a covid test before going seems like the obvious point, which is about ‘Value of Information’, not Bayes’ theorem.
***Yes it sounds weird put like this. P(You go to that party | you get covid): this highlights that the statement is a tad underdefined.
I think it would be cool to see an example of such a pamphlet and if it were good to actually do this (at least get it in more places).
So shall we file this under “do as I say, not as I do”? Ha!
I feel personally attacked
Seriously, do this.
P(You will get covid if you go to that party) = P(you go to that party if you get covid)*P(you get covid)/P(you go to that party)***
Doesn’t seem all that useful in this form.
It seems like the key info is:
The chance other people going have covid**
and the chance you will get it from them.*
*The obvious thing to change, by:
having the party outside
(or not going)
**So, have people get a covid test before going seems like the obvious point, which is about ‘Value of Information’, not Bayes’ theorem.
***Yes it sounds weird put like this. P(You go to that party | you get covid): this highlights that the statement is a tad underdefined.
I think it would be cool to see an example of such a pamphlet and if it were good to actually do this (at least get it in more places).
So shall we file this under “do as I say, not as I do”? Ha!
I feel personally attacked