I get why in examples where you can see each others’ source code this can be the case, and I do one-box on Newcomb where a similar situation is given, but I don’t see how we can presume that there is this kind of instrumental value. All we know about this person is he is a flat earther, and I don’t see how this corresponds to such efficient lie detection in both directions for both of us.
What does the source code really impart? Certainty in the other process’ workings. But why would you need certainty? Is being a co-operator really so extraordinary a claim that to support it you need overwhelming evidence that leaves no other possibilities?
The problem is that there are three salient possibilities for what the other player is:
Defector, who really will defect, and will give you evidence of being a defector
Co-operator, who will really cooperate (with another who he believes to be a co-operator), and will give you evidence of being a co-operator
Deceiver, who will really defect, but will contrive evidence that he is a co-operator
Between co-operator and deceiver, all else equal, you should expect the evidence given by co-operator to be stronger than evidence given by deceiver. Deceiver has to support a complex edifice of his lies, separate from reality, while co-operator can rely on the whole of reality for support of his claims. As a result, each argument a co-operator makes should on average bring you closer to believing that he really is a co-operator, as opposed to being a deceiver. This process may be too slow to shift your expectation from the prior of very strongly disbelieving in existence of co-operators to posterior of believing that this one is really a co-operator, and this may be a problem. But this problem is only as dire as the rarity of co-operators and the deceptive eloquence of deceivers.
We clearly disagree strongly on the probabilities here. I agree that all things being equal you have a better shot at convincing him than I do, but I think it is small. We both do the same thing in the Defector case. In the co-operator course, he believes you with probability P+Q and me with probability P. Assuming you know if he trusts you in this case (we count anything else as deceivers) you save (P+Q) 2 +(1-P-Q) 1, I save (P) 3+(1-P) 1, both times the percentage of co-operators R. So you have to be at least twice as successful as I am even if there are no deceivers on the other side. Meanwhile, there’s some percentage A who are decievers and some probability B that you’ll believe a deceiver, or just A and 1 if you count anyone you don’t believe as a simple Defector.
You think that R (P+Q) 2 + R (1-P-Q) 1 > R P 3 + R (1-P) 1 + A B 1. I strongly disagree. But if you convinced me otherwise, I would change my opinion.
In the co-operator course, he believes you with probability P+Q and me with probability P.
That may be for one step, but my point is that the truth ultimately should win over lies. If you proceed to the next point of argument, you expect to distinguish Cooperator from Defector a little bit better, and as the argument continues, your ability to distinguish the possibilities should improve more and more.
The problem may be that it’s not a fast enough process, but not that there is some fundamental limitation on how good the evidence may get. If you study the question thoroughly, you should be able to move long way away from uncertainty in the direction of truth.
What does the source code really impart? Certainty in the other process’ workings. But why would you need certainty? Is being a co-operator really so extraordinary a claim that to support it you need overwhelming evidence that leaves no other possibilities?
The problem is that there are three salient possibilities for what the other player is:
Defector, who really will defect, and will give you evidence of being a defector
Co-operator, who will really cooperate (with another who he believes to be a co-operator), and will give you evidence of being a co-operator
Deceiver, who will really defect, but will contrive evidence that he is a co-operator
Between co-operator and deceiver, all else equal, you should expect the evidence given by co-operator to be stronger than evidence given by deceiver. Deceiver has to support a complex edifice of his lies, separate from reality, while co-operator can rely on the whole of reality for support of his claims. As a result, each argument a co-operator makes should on average bring you closer to believing that he really is a co-operator, as opposed to being a deceiver. This process may be too slow to shift your expectation from the prior of very strongly disbelieving in existence of co-operators to posterior of believing that this one is really a co-operator, and this may be a problem. But this problem is only as dire as the rarity of co-operators and the deceptive eloquence of deceivers.
We clearly disagree strongly on the probabilities here. I agree that all things being equal you have a better shot at convincing him than I do, but I think it is small. We both do the same thing in the Defector case. In the co-operator course, he believes you with probability P+Q and me with probability P. Assuming you know if he trusts you in this case (we count anything else as deceivers) you save (P+Q) 2 +(1-P-Q) 1, I save (P) 3+(1-P) 1, both times the percentage of co-operators R. So you have to be at least twice as successful as I am even if there are no deceivers on the other side. Meanwhile, there’s some percentage A who are decievers and some probability B that you’ll believe a deceiver, or just A and 1 if you count anyone you don’t believe as a simple Defector.
You think that R (P+Q) 2 + R (1-P-Q) 1 > R P 3 + R (1-P) 1 + A B 1. I strongly disagree. But if you convinced me otherwise, I would change my opinion.
Here’s an older thread about this
That may be for one step, but my point is that the truth ultimately should win over lies. If you proceed to the next point of argument, you expect to distinguish Cooperator from Defector a little bit better, and as the argument continues, your ability to distinguish the possibilities should improve more and more.
The problem may be that it’s not a fast enough process, but not that there is some fundamental limitation on how good the evidence may get. If you study the question thoroughly, you should be able to move long way away from uncertainty in the direction of truth.