Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2021

NunoSempereDec 2, 2021, 9:44 PM
18 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

“In­fo­haz­ard” is a pre­dom­i­nantly con­flict-the­o­retic concept

jessicataDec 2, 2021, 5:54 PM
45 points
17 comments14 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Covid 12/​2: But Aside From That

ZviDec 2, 2021, 4:20 PM
36 points
11 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Omicron Post #3

ZviDec 2, 2021, 3:10 PM
57 points
15 comments13 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Built-in Mea­sur­ing Spoons

jefftkDec 2, 2021, 1:20 PM
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Covid Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets at Polymarket

ZviDec 2, 2021, 12:50 PM
39 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Syd­ney AI Safety Fellowship

Chris_LeongDec 2, 2021, 7:34 AM
22 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Mo­ral­ity is Scary

Wei DaiDec 2, 2021, 6:35 AM
219 points
116 comments4 min readLW link1 review

AXRP Epi­sode 12 - AI Ex­is­ten­tial Risk with Paul Christiano

DanielFilanDec 2, 2021, 2:20 AM
38 points
0 comments126 min readLW link

Com­mon Prob­a­bil­ity Distributions

jsteinhardtDec 2, 2021, 1:50 AM
44 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

The 2020 Review

RaemonDec 2, 2021, 12:39 AM
112 points
39 comments6 min readLW link

Biol­ogy-In­spired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 1, 2021, 10:35 PM
157 points
142 comments65 min readLW link1 review

Open & Wel­come Thread De­cem­ber 2021

PatternDec 1, 2021, 7:57 PM
15 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

Viral Mu­ta­tion, Pan­demics and So­cial Response

jmhDec 1, 2021, 6:36 PM
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Are ex­pla­na­tions that ex­plain more phe­nom­ena always more un­likely than nar­rower ver­sions?

FinalFormal2Dec 1, 2021, 6:34 PM
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Tak­ing Clones Seriously

Raymond DDec 1, 2021, 5:29 PM
56 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

Hy­pothe­ses about Find­ing Knowl­edge and One-Shot Causal Entanglements

J BostockDec 1, 2021, 5:01 PM
16 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

The Limits Of Medicine—Part 1 - Small Molecules

George3d6Dec 1, 2021, 3:51 PM
26 points
1 comment9 min readLW link
(www.epistem.ink)

FDA Votes on Molunpiravir

ZviDec 1, 2021, 3:00 PM
59 points
3 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] How do you write origi­nal ra­tio­nal­ist es­says?

lumenwritesDec 1, 2021, 8:08 AM
24 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­pe­rience with Cue Covid Testing

jefftkDec 1, 2021, 2:50 AM
19 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

The Most /​Im­por­tant/​ Cen­tury? UPDATE: lo­ca­tion change

ThewalDec 1, 2021, 1:52 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesian phys­i­cal­ism: proofs part II

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:27 PM
9 points
0 comments25 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesian phys­i­cal­ism: proofs part I

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:26 PM
9 points
0 comments21 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesian phys­i­cal­ism: a for­mal the­ory of nat­u­ral­ized induction

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:25 PM
114 points
23 comments42 min readLW link1 review

DC Win­ter Solstice

maiaNov 30, 2021, 9:29 PM
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Rely­ing on Fu­ture Creativity

J BostockNov 30, 2021, 8:12 PM
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Reneg­ing Prosocially

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Nov 30, 2021, 7:01 PM
173 points
15 comments17 min readLW link1 review

Tears Must Flow

sapphireNov 30, 2021, 6:37 PM
21 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

Ma­chine Agents, Hy­brid Su­per­in­tel­li­gences, and The Loss of Hu­man Con­trol (Chap­ter 1)

Justin BullockNov 30, 2021, 5:35 PM
4 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Look­ing for rea­soned dis­cus­sion on Geert Van­den Boss­che’s ideas? +6 Months on...

megabranflakeNov 30, 2021, 4:30 PM
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do Bayesi­ans tell what does and doesn’t count as ev­i­dence (which, e.g., hy­pothe­ses may ren­der more or less prob­a­ble if true)? Is it pos­si­ble for some­thing to fuzzily-be ev­i­dence?

LVSNNov 30, 2021, 12:52 PM
2 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Self-study­ing to de­velop an in­side-view model of AI al­ign­ment; co-studiers wel­come!

Vael GatesNov 30, 2021, 9:25 AM
13 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

My take on higher-or­der game theory

NisanNov 30, 2021, 5:56 AM
40 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

AI Gover­nance Fun­da­men­tals—Cur­ricu­lum and Application

MauNov 30, 2021, 2:19 AM
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Seek­ing Truth Too Hard Can Keep You from Winning

Gordon Seidoh WorleyNov 30, 2021, 2:16 AM
27 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Visi­ble Thoughts Pro­ject and Bounty Announcement

So8resNov 30, 2021, 12:19 AM
249 points
106 comments13 min readLW link1 review

Soares, Tal­linn, and Yud­kowsky dis­cuss AGI cognition

Nov 29, 2021, 7:26 PM
121 points
39 comments40 min readLW link1 review

[Question] COVID Era: Up­dat­ing On Life Risks

jmhNov 29, 2021, 5:27 PM
6 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Snoo App Thoughts

jefftkNov 29, 2021, 4:40 PM
11 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Omicron Var­i­ant Post #2

ZviNov 29, 2021, 4:30 PM
120 points
34 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Com­ments on Allan Dafoe on AI Governance

Alex FlintNov 29, 2021, 4:16 PM
13 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

How to mea­sure FLOP/​s for Neu­ral Net­works em­piri­cally?

Marius HobbhahnNov 29, 2021, 3:18 PM
16 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Watch­ing My­self Program

mattoNov 29, 2021, 1:44 PM
56 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Ques­tion/​Is­sue with the 5/​10 Problem

acgtNov 29, 2021, 10:45 AM
6 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Red­wood Re­search is hiring for sev­eral roles

Nov 29, 2021, 12:16 AM
44 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Com­pute Re­search Ques­tions and Met­rics—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [4/​4]

lennartNov 28, 2021, 10:49 PM
7 points
0 comments16 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe CarlsmithNov 28, 2021, 8:35 PM
52 points
9 comments47 min readLW link

The Ra­tion­al­ists of the 1950s (and be­fore) also called them­selves “Ra­tion­al­ists”

Owain_EvansNov 28, 2021, 8:17 PM
186 points
32 comments3 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Is it bet­ter to fix a prob­lem di­rectly, or start again so the prob­lem never hap­pens?

Oluwalase JothamNov 28, 2021, 8:00 PM
2 points
4 comments1 min readLW link