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Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020

NunoSempereDec 1, 2020, 5:00 PM

29 points

5 comments12 min readLW link

Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets—Part 3

lsusrDec 1, 2020, 12:43 PM

133 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

Book Review: ‘History Has Begun: The Birth of a New America’ by Bruno Maçães

tonyoconnorDec 1, 2020, 11:47 AM

3 points

2 comments10 min readLW link

My Fear Heuristic

lsusrDec 1, 2020, 8:00 AM

117 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

The LessWrong 2018 Book is Available for Pre-order

Ben Pace and Bird Concept

Dec 1, 2020, 8:00 AM

187 points

110 comments10 min readLW link

Notes on Sincerity and such

David GrossDec 1, 2020, 5:09 AM

9 points

2 comments10 min readLW link

What is “protein folding”? A brief explanation

jasoncrawfordDec 1, 2020, 2:46 AM

75 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

(rootsofprogress.org)

Links for Nov 2020

ikeDec 1, 2020, 1:31 AM

6 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(www.facebook.com)

Giving Tuesday 2020

jefftkNov 30, 2020, 10:30 PM

28 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Non-Book Review: Patterns of Conflict

johnswentworthNov 30, 2020, 9:05 PM

38 points

2 comments7 min readLW link

SETI Predictions

hippkeNov 30, 2020, 8:09 PM

23 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Idealized Factored Cognition

Rafael HarthNov 30, 2020, 6:49 PM

34 points

6 comments11 min readLW link

Preface to the Sequence on Factored Cognition

Rafael HarthNov 30, 2020, 6:49 PM

35 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

[Linkpost] AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

adamShimiNov 30, 2020, 5:33 PM

54 points

22 comments1 min readLW link

(deepmind.com)

[Question] Why did the Ming treasure voyages end in 1433?

ChristianKlNov 30, 2020, 1:30 PM

15 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Rationality Vienna Online Meetup (Special Guest: Johannes Jaeger)

AnnaLeptikonNov 30, 2020, 1:14 PM

3 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

The Mutant Game—Rounds 91 to 247

lsusrNov 30, 2020, 9:25 AM

20 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets—Part 2

lsusrNov 30, 2020, 8:12 AM

98 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Book review: WEIRDest People

PeterMcCluskeyNov 30, 2020, 3:33 AM

105 points

57 comments9 min readLW link

(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] A short talk on SB and friends

Jon ZeroNov 29, 2020, 9:07 PM

10 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Before rationality- a snapshot

jospus321Nov 29, 2020, 9:07 PM

3 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

Notes on Humility

David GrossNov 29, 2020, 7:50 PM

18 points

4 comments10 min readLW link

DIY Beaterless Drum Pedals

jefftkNov 29, 2020, 1:20 AM

14 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations

Elizabeth and ozziegooen

Nov 28, 2020, 9:11 PM

43 points

25 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Does a site exist for keeping track of casual wagers with others?

LifaceNov 28, 2020, 4:22 PM

2 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Can we get people to shut up on public transportation?

ChristianKlNov 28, 2020, 3:30 PM

9 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

Daniel KokotajloNov 28, 2020, 12:51 PM

18 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Theory Of Change As A Hypothesis: Choosing A High-Impact Path When You’re Uncertain

lynettebyeNov 28, 2020, 4:38 AM

19 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Overcoming Paradox of Choice Through Random Selection

vernamcipherNov 28, 2020, 4:27 AM

13 points

2 comments4 min readLW link

The Mutant Game—Rounds 31 to 90

lsusrNov 27, 2020, 9:05 PM

18 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Notes on Good Temper

David GrossNov 27, 2020, 4:21 PM

32 points

7 comments11 min readLW link

Final Version Perfected: An Underused Execution Algorithm

willbradshawNov 27, 2020, 10:43 AM

103 points

34 comments7 min readLW link

[AN #126]: Avoiding wireheading by decoupling action feedback from action effects

Rohin ShahNov 26, 2020, 11:20 PM

24 points

1 comment10 min readLW link

(mailchi.mp)

Sunday November 29th, 12:00PM (PT) — Andreas Stuhlmüller on Combining GPT-3 and Forecasting

habrykaNov 26, 2020, 10:14 PM

22 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Nash Score for Voting Techniques

abramdemskiNov 26, 2020, 7:29 PM

20 points

12 comments6 min readLW link

Notes on Endurance

David GrossNov 26, 2020, 6:44 PM

13 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

Small Habits Shape Identity: How I became someone who exercises

adamShimiNov 26, 2020, 2:55 PM

46 points

20 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 11/26: Thanksgiving

ZviNov 26, 2020, 2:50 PM

114 points

14 comments24 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Delegated agents in practice: How companies might end up selling AI services that act on behalf of consumers and coalitions, and what this implies for safety research

RemmeltNov 26, 2020, 11:17 AM

7 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

Matryoshka Faraday Box

lsusrNov 26, 2020, 9:42 AM

50 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

Deconstructing 321 Voting

abramdemskiNov 26, 2020, 3:35 AM

40 points

5 comments6 min readLW link

Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets—Part 1

lsusrNov 26, 2020, 3:02 AM

153 points

31 comments3 min readLW link 1 review

Notes on Benevolence

David GrossNov 26, 2020, 2:43 AM

25 points

2 comments8 min readLW link

The Exploitability/Explainability Frontier

ikeNov 26, 2020, 12:59 AM

24 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

Learning from counterfactuals

GyrodiotNov 25, 2020, 11:07 PM

11 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Squiggle: Technical Overview

ozziegooenNov 25, 2020, 8:51 PM

18 points

3 comments9 min readLW link

Success Buys Freedom

lsusrNov 25, 2020, 1:53 PM

62 points

4 comments6 min readLW link

Convolution as smoothing

Maxwell PetersonNov 25, 2020, 6:00 AM

29 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Evading Mind Control

lsusrNov 25, 2020, 5:01 AM

62 points

18 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What to put in my time capsule?

justinsludNov 25, 2020, 4:21 AM

1 point

2 comments1 min readLW link