Planecrash has 307 images at the time I made this comment, for context.
rocurley
Karma: 713
[DC/MD] HPMOR Anniversary Party
DC/Maryland (Rockville) Solstice 2024
[Rockville] Rationalist Shabbat
Group Debugging meetup
Quaker Practice for the Aspiring Rationalist
Year in Review + Accountability Groups Meetup
Calibration Games workshop
Double Crux meetup
If you don’t want to bother using the glowfic downloader yourself, here’s the epub so far. My intention is to update it every day, but no guarantees.
Rockville Dinner Meetup
Rockville Dinner Meetup
Washington DC Meeetup: Reading Discussion
I’m also very interested in this. Here are some numbers I’ve been using:
Ratio of confirmed to unconfirmed cases (USA):
34 (50%), or 5 (5%) to 94 (95%)
This is based on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642 , which estimated the true number of coronavirus cases in Seattle (as of 2020-03-01). I divided that by the number of confirmed cases in Seattle at that time.
Doubling time (USA):
4 ish (which I’m treating as 2 (5%) to 7 (95%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports is how I’m getting 4ish. There are papers that estimate higher: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 gives 7, for example, but that appears to be in Wuhan post-containment.
Here’s my bay area hospital capacity model: https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15278
Here’s a guesstimate model I made to try and figure out when hospitals will become overwhelmed. Lots of model uncertainty here that I’d appreciate advice on, but the current prediction is that there will be a hospital bed for you if you get infected in the bay area within the next 6 days (95% confidence within the model: actual confidence is much lower).
I think this comment would be a lot better without the attempts to psychoanalyze OP.