South China Morning Post had a story line a day or so back where Chinese experts were suggesting a 10 fold increase every 19 days. Interestingly the rate seems to be about double that if you look at the last 19 days.
I did not look past the totals but suspect that is highly dominated by South Korea (seems to be slowing), Italy and Iran (these two do not seem to be slowing).
Might also be interesting to put a latitude metric in as well—while I have a “sense” that more equatorial areas have a lower incident (and may be spread rate) I’ve not seen that data plotted anywhere.
I’m also very interested in this. Here are some numbers I’ve been using:
Ratio of confirmed to unconfirmed cases (USA):
34 (50%), or 5 (5%) to 94 (95%)
This is based on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642 , which estimated the true number of coronavirus cases in Seattle (as of 2020-03-01). I divided that by the number of confirmed cases in Seattle at that time.
Doubling time (USA):
4 ish (which I’m treating as 2 (5%) to 7 (95%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports is how I’m getting 4ish. There are papers that estimate higher: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 gives 7, for example, but that appears to be in Wuhan post-containment.
South China Morning Post had a story line a day or so back where Chinese experts were suggesting a 10 fold increase every 19 days. Interestingly the rate seems to be about double that if you look at the last 19 days.
I did not look past the totals but suspect that is highly dominated by South Korea (seems to be slowing), Italy and Iran (these two do not seem to be slowing).
Might also be interesting to put a latitude metric in as well—while I have a “sense” that more equatorial areas have a lower incident (and may be spread rate) I’ve not seen that data plotted anywhere.