“Utility Engineering: Analyzing and Controlling Emergent Value Systems in AI”
https://www.emergent-values.ai/
I walked through this paper’s finding in detail in a previous episode of Doom Debates which IMO is one of my best episodes. Just skip straight to the chapters in the second half, timestamp 49:13:
I have multi-year-wide confidence intervals, which I think the authors of AI 2027 also do, so I don’t have much of a stance on whether the best guess is 2026 or 2027 or 2030 or 2035. I agree 2027 seems a bit soon given the subjective rate of progress 🤷♂️