By your logic, if I ask you a totally separate question “What’s the probability that a parent’s two kids are both boys”, would you answer 1/3? Becuase the correct answer should be 1⁄4 right? So something about your preferred methodology isn’t robust.
You’ve made me realize that I’ve misrepresented how my intuitive mind processes this. After thinking about it a bit, a better way to write it would be:
The core distinction seems to be to be if you considered it an unordered set or an ordered one. I’m unsure of any way to represent that in easy to read text format, the form written above is best I’ve got.
By your logic, if I ask you a totally separate question “What’s the probability that a parent’s two kids are both boys”, would you answer 1/3? Becuase the correct answer should be 1⁄4 right? So something about your preferred methodology isn’t robust.
Good point.
You’ve made me realize that I’ve misrepresented how my intuitive mind processes this. After thinking about it a bit, a better way to write it would be:
Child 1: P(B) = 1⁄2, P(G) = 1⁄2
Child 2: P(B) = 1⁄2, P(G) = 1⁄2
Combined as unordered set {Child 1, Child 2}
The core distinction seems to be to be if you considered it an unordered set or an ordered one. I’m unsure of any way to represent that in easy to read text format, the form written above is best I’ve got.