LessWrong developer, rationalist since the Overcoming Bias days. Jargon connoisseur.
jimrandomh
Karma: 21,507
Sorry about that, a fix is in progress. Unmaking a prediction will no longer crash. The UI will incorrectly display the cancelled prediction in the leftmost bucket; that will be fixed in a few minutes without you needing to re-do any predictions.
You can change this in your user settings! It’s in the Site Customization section; it’s labelled “Hide other users’ Elicit predictions until I have predicted myself”. (Our Claims feature is no longer linked to Elicit, but this setting carries over from back when it was.)
You can prevent this by putting a note in some place that isn’t public but would be found later, such as a will, that says that any purported suicide note is fake unless it contains a particular password.
Unfortunately while this strategy might occasionally reveal a death to have been murder, it doesn’t really work as a deterrent; someone who thinks you’ve done this would make the death look like an accident or medical issue instead.
Lots of people are pushing back on this, but I do want to say explicitly that I agree that raw LLM-produced text is mostly not up to LW standards, and that the writing style that current-gen LLMs produce by default sucks. In the new-user-posting-for-the-first-time moderation queue, next to the SEO spam, we do see some essays that look like raw LLM output, and we reject these.
That doesn’t mean LLMs don’t have good use around the edges. In the case of defining commonly-used jargon, there is no need for insight or originality, the task is search-engine-adjacent, and so I think LLMs have a role there. That said, if the glossary content is coming out bad in practice, that’s important feedback.
In your climate, defection from the natural gas and electric grid is very far from being economical, because the peak energy demand for the year is dominated by heating, and solar peaks in the summer, so you would need to have extreme oversizing of the panels to provide sufficient energy in the winter.
I think the prediction here is that people will detach only from the electric grid, not from the natural gas grid. If you use natural gas heat instead of a heat pump for part of the winter, then you don’t need to oversize your solar panels as much.
If you set aside the pricing structure and just look at the underlying economics, the power grid will still be definitely needed for all the loads that are too dense for rooftop solar, ie industry, car chargers, office buildings, apartment buildings, and some commercial buildings. If every suburban house detached from the grid, these consumers would see big increases in their transmission costs, but they wouldn’t have much choice but to pay them. This might lead to a world where downtown areas and cities have electric grids, but rural areas and the sparser parts of suburbs don’t.
There’s an additional backup-power option not mentioned here, which is that some electric cars can feed their battery back to a house. So if there’s a long string of cloudy days but the roads are still usable, you can transport power from the grid to an off-grid house by charging at a public charger, and discharging at home. This might be a better option than a natural-gas generator, especially if it only comes up rarely.
If rural areas switch to a regime where everyone has solar+batteries, and the power grid only reaches downtown and industrial areas… that actually seems like it might just be optimal? The price of disributed generation and storage falls over time, but the cost of power lines doesn’t, so there should be a crossover point somewhere where the power lines aren’t worth it. Maybe net-metering will cause the switchover to happen too soon, but it does seem like a switchover should happen eventually.
Many people seem to have a single bucket in their thinking, which merges “moral condemnation” and “negative product review”. This produces weird effects, like writing angry callout posts for a business having high prices.
I think a large fraction of libertarian thinking is just the abillity to keep these straight, so that the next thought after “business has high prices” is “shop elsewhere” rather than “coordinate punishment”.
Nope, that’s more than enough. Caleb Ditchfield, you are seriously mentally ill, and your delusions are causing you to exhibit a pattern of unethical behavior. This is not a place where you will be able to find help or support with your mental illness. Based on skimming your Twitter history, I believe your mental illness is caused by (or exacerbated by) abusing Adderall.
You have already been banned from numerous community events and spaces. I’m banning you from LW, too.
Worth noting explicitly: while there weren’t any logs left of prompts or completions, there were logs of API invocations and errors, which contained indications that whatever this was, it was still under development and not an already-scaled setup. Eg we saw API calls fail with invalid-arguments, then get retried successfully after a delay.
The indicators-of-compromise aren’t a good match between the Permiso blog post and what we see in logs; in particular we see the user agent string
Boto3/1.29.7 md/Botocore#1.32.7 ua/2.0 os/windows#10 md/arch#amd64 lang/python#3.12.4 md/pyimpl#CPython cfg/retry-mode#legacy Botocore/1.32.7which is not mentioned. While I haven’t checked all the IPs, I checked a sampling and they didn’t overlap. (The IPs are a very weak signal, however, since they were definitely botnet IPs and botnets can be large.)
Ah, sorry that one went unfixed for as long as it did; a fix is now written and should be deployed pretty soon.
This is a bug and we’re looking into it. It appears to be specific to Safari on iOS (Chrome on iOS is a Safari skin); it doesn’t affect desktop browsers, Android/Chrome, or Android/Firefox, which is why we didn’t notice earlier. This most likely started with a change on desktop where clicking on a post (without modifiers) opens when you press the mouse button, rather than when you release it.
Standardized tests work, within the range they’re testing for. You don’t need to overthink that part. If you want to make people’s intelligence more legible and more provable, what you have is more of a social and logistical issue: how do you convince people to publish their test scores, get people to care about those scores, and ensure that the scores they publish are real and not the result of cheating?
And the only practical way to realize this, that I can think of now, is by predicting the largest stock markets such as the NYSE, via some kind of options trading, many many many times within say a calendar year, and then showing their average rate of their returns is significantly above random chance.
The threshold for doing this isn’t being above average relative to human individuals, it’s being close to the top relative to specialized institutions. That can occasionally be achievable, but usually it isn’t.
The first time you came to my attention was in May. I had posted something about how Facebook’s notification system works. You cold-messaged me to say you had gotten duplicate notifications from Facebook, and you thought this meant that your phone was hacked. Prior to this, I don’t recall us having ever interacted or having heard you mentioned. During that conversation, you came across to me as paranoid-delusional. You mentioned Duncan’s name once, and I didn’t think anything of it at the time.
Less than a week later, someone (not mentioned or participating in this thread) messaged me to say that you were having a psychotic episode, and since we were Facebook friends maybe I could check up on you? I said I didn’t really know you, so wasn’t able to do that.
Months later, Duncan reported that you were harrassing him. Some time after that (when it hadn’t stopped), he wrote up a doc. It looks like at some point you formed an obsession about Duncan, reacted negatively to him blocking you, and started escalating. (Duncan has a reputation for blocking a lot of people. I have made the joke that his MtG card says “~ can block any number of creatures”.)
But, here’s the thing: Duncan’s testimony is not the only (or even main) reason why you look like a dangerous person to me. There are subtle cues about the shape of your mental illness strewn through most of what you write, including the public stuff. People are going to react to that by protecting themselves.
I hope that you recover, mental-health-wise. But hanging around this community is not going to help you do that. If anything, I expect lingering here to exacerbate your problems. Both because you’re surrounded by burn bridges, and also because the local memeplex has a reputation for having worsened people’s mental illness in other, unrelated cases.
A news article reports on a crime. In the replies, one person calls the crime “awful”, one person calls it “evil”, and one person calls it “disgusting”.
I think that, on average, the person who called it “disgusting” is a worse person than the other two. While I think there are many people using it unreflectively as a generic word for “bad”, I think many people are honestly signaling that they had a disgust reaction, and that this was the deciding element of their response. But disgust-emotion is less correlated with morality than other ways of evaluating things.
The correlation gets stronger if we shift from talk about actions to talk about people, and stronger again if we shift from talk about people to talk about groups.
LessWrong now has sidenotes. These use the existing footnotes feature; posts that already had footnotes will now also display these footnotes in the right margin (if your screen is wide enough/zoomed out enough). Post authors can disable this for individual posts; we’re defaulting it to on because when looking at older posts, most of the time it seems like an improvement.
Relatedly, we now also display inline reactions as icons in the right margin (rather than underlines within the main post text). If reaction icons or sidenotes would cover each other up, they get pushed down the page.
Feedback welcome!
LessWrong now has collapsible sections in the post editor (currently only for posts, but we should be able to also extend this to comments if there’s demand.) To use the, click the insert-block icon in the left margin (see screenshot). Once inserted, they
They start out closed; when open, they look like this:
When viewing the post outside the editor, they will start out closed and have a click-to-expand. There are a few known minor issues editing them; in particular the editor will let you nest them but they look bad when nested so you shouldn’t, and there’s a bug where if your cursor is inside a collapsible section, when you click outside the editor, eg to edit the post title, the cursor will move back. They will probably work on third-party readers like GreaterWrong, but this hasn’t been tested yet.
The Elicit integrations aren’t working. I’m looking into it; it looks like we attempted to migrate away from the Elicit API 7 months ago and make the polls be self-hosted on LW, but left the UI for creating Elicit polls in place in a way where it would produce broken polls. Argh.
I can find the polls this article uses, but unfortunately I can’t link to them; Elicit’s question-permalink route is broken? Here’s what should have been a permalink to the first question: link.
This is a hit piece. Maybe there are legitimate criticisms in there, but it tells you right off the bat that it’s egregiously untrustworthy with the first paragraph:
I like to think of the Bay Area intellectual culture as the equivalent of the Vogons’ in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. The Vogons, if you don’t remember, are an alien species who demolish Earth to build an interstellar highway. Similarly, Bay Area intellectuals tend to see some goal in the future that they want to get to and they make a straight line for it, tunneling through anything in their way.
There really ought to be a parallel food supply chain, for scientific/research purposes, where all ingredients are high-purity, in a similar way to how the ingredients going into a semiconductor factory are high-purity. Manufacture high-purity soil from ultrapure ingredients, fill a greenhouse with plants with known genomes, water them with ultrapure water. Raise animals fed with high-purity plants. Reproduce a typical American diet in this way.
This would be very expensive compared to normal food, but quite scientifically valuable. You could randomize a study population to identical diets, using either high-purity or regular ingredients. This would give a definitive answer to whether obesity (and any other health problems) is caused by a contaminant. Then you could replace portions of the inputs with the default supply chain, and figure out where the problems are.
Part of why studying nutrition is hard is that we know things were better in some important way 100 years ago, but we no longer have access to that baseline. But this is fixable.