ioannes

• ioannesOct 9, 2020, 10:07 PM

  3 points

  in reply to: ESRogs’s comment on: The ra­tio­nal­ist com­mu­nity’s lo­ca­tion problem

  Agree with these points, though Seattle doesn’t seem very dynamic compared to the Bay, LA, NYC, or even Salt Lake. (It seems very normie, to use a pejorative.)

• ioannesOct 9, 2020, 9:42 PM

  16 points

  in reply to: Scott Alexander’s comment on: The ra­tio­nal­ist com­mu­nity’s lo­ca­tion problem

  I actually feel like East Bay (Oakland and every place north of Oakland) is really pleasant:

  • Cost of living isn’t terrible except for rent, and it’s still possible to find good deals on rent, e.g. I’ve lived in North Oakland for 6 years and have only paid more than $1,000/​month for one of those years (granted for the rest of the time I’ve been living in group houses or with a partner)

  • East Bay parks are amazing

  • Minimal social decay except for downtown Berkeley and parts of Oakland

  • Wonderful weather for ~10 months of the year (every season except for fire season)

  • Lots of interesting + diverse people, intellectual communities, and social life

  What am I missing?

• ioannesOct 6, 2020, 5:32 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: cadillion’s comment on: The ra­tio­nal­ist com­mu­nity’s lo­ca­tion problem

  Wild Wild Country 2: Electric Boogaloo!

• ioannesSep 28, 2020, 11:08 PM

  5 points

  in reply to: Daniel Kokotajlo’s comment on: What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

  Got it, thanks for clarifying

• ioannesSep 27, 2020, 6:01 PM

  10 points

  in reply to: Daniel Kokotajlo’s comment on: What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

  For example, Kurzweil’s 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.

  This isn’t right.

  See Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results – “So, did more time allow for more perspective or more ways to go wrong? Well, Kurzweil’s predictions for 2019 were considerably worse than those for 2009, with more than half strongly wrong”

• ioannesAug 30, 2020, 1:23 AM

  6 points

  on: Mean­ingful Rest

  Related:

  • Sabbath hard and go home

  • Slack and the sabbath

• ioannesAug 12, 2020, 11:53 PM

  3 points

  in reply to: ESRogs’s comment on: In­vest­ment idea: bas­ket of tech stocks weighted to­wards AI

  Yeah, I’m roughly as excited about Microsoft as I am about Facebook or Apple.

  I wonder how much of OpenAI they got for their $1B...

• ioannesAug 11, 2020, 8:07 PM

  2 points

  in reply to: PeterMcCluskey’s comment on: En­gag­ing Se­ri­ously with Short Timelines

  The biggest semiconductor equipment companies (symbols BRKS, LRCX, KLAC, and AMAT) look like decent investments, but not quite cheap enough that I’m willing to buy them.

  
  

  What do you think of companies like Broadcom, NXP, Marvell, and MediaTek?

  (I don’t quite know where these sit in the value chain in relation to the companies you quoted; I believe they’re focused more on chip design and mostly don’t do fabrication)

• ioannesJul 23, 2020, 10:13 PM

  3 points

  on: Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

  A nice clip from the Thiel/​Cowen interview: https://​​www.youtube.com/​​watch?v=cCwXRlIb8c0

• ioannesJul 19, 2020, 7:44 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: gwern’s comment on: (a)

  Update: Brave Browser now gives an option to search for archived versions whenever it lands on a “page does not exist”

• ioannesJun 17, 2020, 9:21 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: Suspended Reason’s comment on: Si­mu­lacra Levels and their Interactions

  Great analogy.

  Do you have examples of equilibria around these dynamics in the animal world? Do you have a sense of how stable these equilibria are?

  e.g. do toxic black-and-red butterflies persist after their non-toxic lookalikes arrive?

• ioannesMay 27, 2020, 10:17 PM

  1 point

  on: Re­mem­ber­ing the pass­ing of Kathy Forth.

  Posting this here for cross-reference:

  If I Can’t Have Me, No One Can

  [Content warning: a suicide note that deals heavily with sexual violence]

• ioannesMay 1, 2020, 4:58 PM

  3 points

  on: Nega­tive Feed­back and Simulacra

  At some point I’d like to interweave the simulacra-levels framework with the discussion of motivations in this post: Altruistic action is dispassionate

  They feel related.

• ioannesApr 18, 2020, 12:14 AM

  1 point

  on: Seem­ingly Pop­u­lar Covid-19 Model is Ob­vi­ous Nonsense

  StatNews piece on the IHME model: https://​​www.statnews.com/​​2020/​​04/​​17/​​influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/​​

• ioannesApr 9, 2020, 2:51 PM

  3 points

  in reply to: Lukas_Gloor’s comment on: Why I’m Not Vegan

  +1

  The adversarial collaboration talks a bit about this.

• ioannesApr 9, 2020, 2:49 PM

  6 points

  on: Why I’m Not Vegan

  Pigs: about 100. Conditions for pigs are very bad, though I still think humans matter a lot more.

  
  

  Very surprised by your ratios here.

  cf. the “Is eating meat a net harm?” adversarial collaboration on Slate Star Codex. Look at the surveys they ran as a benchmark.

• ioannesApr 5, 2020, 8:13 PM

  4 points

  in reply to: Filipe Marchesini’s comment on: How strong is the ev­i­dence for hy­drox­y­chloro­quine?

  Yes, I pointed out some of the limitations in the original link. Should still be included in a lit review though.

• ioannesApr 5, 2020, 5:54 PM

  1 point

  on: April Coron­avirus Open Thread

  Seems like a good model for estimating total infections, from my quick look: https://​​observablehq.com/​​@danyx/​​estimating-sars-cov-2-infections

  I haven’t poked its methodology.

• ioannesApr 5, 2020, 3:54 PM

  2 points

  in reply to: Wei Dai’s comment on: April Coron­avirus Open Thread

  Thanks, hadn’t seen that.

  Also just saw this, which makes a lot of the same points: https://​​westhunt.wordpress.com/​​2020/​​04/​​04/​​ihme-projections/​​

• ioannesApr 5, 2020, 3:18 PM

  3 points

  on: How strong is the ev­i­dence for hy­drox­y­chloro­quine?

  Gautret et al. 2020 and Chen et al. 2020 are studies of hydroxychloroquine efficacy.

  I stumbled onto these during the course of my internet reading, would be great to see a proper lit review.