Knowing that your bet on this horse will be counted twice does not help you win by bettin on him or against him. Analogy to sleeping beauty would be, that bet is counted twice only if this horse wins.
Dr. Jamchie
Karma: −36
Suppose there is roulette table. Host throws the ball. If red—beauty is woken up 1 time, if black—two times.
When woken, beauty is asked to bet 1 dollar on either red or black. Roulette betting rules applies. Now there are two beauties—red and black. Red always bets red, black always bets black. Both undergo experiment 100 times.
In roulette red number drops out ~50% of the time. So Red queen wins ~$50 and loses ~$100 as for every black number she bets and looses 1$ twice.
Black queen gets back with ~$50 plus. In halfer world both should end up at 0.
No.
The one who has student loan to pay is less likely to quit job.
I see.
Although I do find this indeed an interesting parable, yet I fail to see any practical implications of this insight. Perhaps you could elaborate more on if there are any?
For me, personally, it was some combination of discovering other, at that time, stronger pleasures and motivators than pure bliss of chasing the truth; depleting most of available resources of interesting information and feeling already smart enough for all intents and purposes. Although curiosity have found it’s way back to my life several times since.
My concern is that there are some share of people who might have internal desires to do harmful things to others and are smart enough to evade consequences, for whom “internalized should not” is the only thing keeping them from doing those things.
You do that. You are the man.
Lack of money does indeed lead to burn out. I hope you have not had the experience, but it is the way it is.
I would be surprised if it where, given the censorship state currently this site is in.
Are you saying moderators are upvoting/downvoting posts by more points than is supposed by the system?
My suggestion is to show up-votes and down-votes separately. Naturally the post that gets no votes at all and post that gets 50 downvotes and 50 upvotes are of different significance and that should be visible.
I believe the worst possible incentive you can think of for somebody who you think is trying to get attention, is to give him attention. That`s just my two cents, not trying to seem as I know how to do your job ;)
It makes changing our minds less stressful
But what if it feels less stressful exactly because, you actually don’t change them? You know how you remember moments in your life better if they there strongly emotional? This suggest that stronger the emotions the bigger the impact on the brain. Then what if something that is interesting, but not stressful, just gives you the warm feeling of changing your mind, but actual neural connections fades away in few days, just like memory about boring conversation you had with colleague at the coffee machine?
I expect if you don’t put a little effort into changing your commenting style, you’ll continue to be significantly downvoted regularly.
What is interesting is that my second reply in the thread have even more downvotes that the first. Seems that more people read the second post even though it was hidden due to lot of downvotes of parent post. This suggests post being hidden acts as kind of attractor for reading the post. It could be something like “hey this post was heavily downvoted, there should be blood, let me see that stuff”. People need action, even rationalists :)
In my experience, which is not this site and probably not a culture you are from, putting some aggresion is essential part to even start a discussion. I mean proper discussion, which makes people think hard and which makes people to aggree on important things. Everything else is just small talk.
You should appreciate rude if cutting time is a priority in your life.
So to again summarise this whole argument: Moloch is a problem, that made you exist and is impossible to solve by definition. So what are you going to do about it? (I suggest trying to answer this to your self at first, only then to me)
Let me put it this way—if this is a problem, you would probably want to solve it? Generally if you want to solve a problem you would prefer it to not have existed in the first place? If yes then you would also not have any of the values you want to save. Considering this, does Moloch still qualifies as a problem?
And counting bet twice only in case of horse winning is equivalent of betting with 2:1 odds. Bookmaker will only give such odds if probability of that horse winning is 1⁄3. Hence the 1⁄3 probability.