Knowing that your bet on this horse will be counted twice does not help you win by bettin on him or against him. Analogy to sleeping beauty would be, that bet is counted twice only if this horse wins.
You’re right that it doesn’t really affect single bets, but it becomes important if you try to do things such as arbitrage where you need to arrange bets in the correct ratios.
“Analogy to sleeping beauty would be, that bet is counted twice only if this horse wins”—but yeah, I should have said that instead
And counting bet twice only in case of horse winning is equivalent of betting with 2:1 odds. Bookmaker will only give such odds if probability of that horse winning is 1⁄3. Hence the 1⁄3 probability.
You can model it as having 2:1 odds or 1:1 odds with the bet counted twice. The later requires a trivial change to your betting algorithm. It also has the advantage of not changing your probability of a horse winning due to a mistake in a bookmaking system.
Knowing that your bet on this horse will be counted twice does not help you win by bettin on him or against him. Analogy to sleeping beauty would be, that bet is counted twice only if this horse wins.
You’re right that it doesn’t really affect single bets, but it becomes important if you try to do things such as arbitrage where you need to arrange bets in the correct ratios.
“Analogy to sleeping beauty would be, that bet is counted twice only if this horse wins”—but yeah, I should have said that instead
And counting bet twice only in case of horse winning is equivalent of betting with 2:1 odds. Bookmaker will only give such odds if probability of that horse winning is 1⁄3. Hence the 1⁄3 probability.
You can model it as having 2:1 odds or 1:1 odds with the bet counted twice. The later requires a trivial change to your betting algorithm. It also has the advantage of not changing your probability of a horse winning due to a mistake in a bookmaking system.
But that is not an actual analogy to sleeping beauty. Real analogy would be, that you are a “counted bet”, what horse are you more likely to be on?