Suppose there is roulette table. Host throws the ball. If red—beauty is woken up 1 time, if black—two times.
When woken, beauty is asked to bet 1 dollar on either red or black. Roulette betting rules applies. Now there are two beauties—red and black. Red always bets red, black always bets black. Both undergo experiment 100 times.
In roulette red number drops out ~50% of the time. So Red queen wins ~$50 and loses ~$100 as for every black number she bets and looses 1$ twice.
Black queen gets back with ~$50 plus. In halfer world both should end up at 0.
I didn’t address the betting odds argument as its been covered extensively in other posts, but instead of just calculating the odds based on the probability, you need to add an extra parameter for the number of repeats.
But if we’re talking about an ordinary Sleeping Beauty problem, there are no repeats—no multiple instances of Beauty with exactly the same memories. Whatever betting scheme may have been defined, when Beauty decides what to bet, her decision is made at a single moment in time, and applies only for that time, affecting her payoff according to whatever the rules of the betting scheme may be. She is allowed to make a different decision at a different time (though of course she may in fact make the same decision), and again that will affect her payoff (or not) according to the rules of the scheme. There is no scope for any unusual relationship between probability and betting odds.
Suppose there is roulette table. Host throws the ball. If red—beauty is woken up 1 time, if black—two times.
When woken, beauty is asked to bet 1 dollar on either red or black. Roulette betting rules applies. Now there are two beauties—red and black. Red always bets red, black always bets black. Both undergo experiment 100 times.
In roulette red number drops out ~50% of the time. So Red queen wins ~$50 and loses ~$100 as for every black number she bets and looses 1$ twice.
Black queen gets back with ~$50 plus. In halfer world both should end up at 0.
I didn’t address the betting odds argument as its been covered extensively in other posts, but instead of just calculating the odds based on the probability, you need to add an extra parameter for the number of repeats.
But if we’re talking about an ordinary Sleeping Beauty problem, there are no repeats—no multiple instances of Beauty with exactly the same memories. Whatever betting scheme may have been defined, when Beauty decides what to bet, her decision is made at a single moment in time, and applies only for that time, affecting her payoff according to whatever the rules of the betting scheme may be. She is allowed to make a different decision at a different time (though of course she may in fact make the same decision), and again that will affect her payoff (or not) according to the rules of the scheme. There is no scope for any unusual relationship between probability and betting odds.