(5) Q1 2026: The next version comes online. It is released, but it refuses to help with ML research. Leaks indicate that it doesn’t refuse to help with ML research internally, and in fact is heavily automating the process at its parent corporation. It’s basically doing all the work by itself; the humans are basically just watching the metrics go up and making suggestions and trying to understand the new experiments it’s running and architectures it’s proposing.
@Daniel Kokotajlo, why do you think they would release it?
Can someone create a forecasting question about which model will score better in benchmarks, Claude 3.5 Opus or GPT-5?