These are very poor odds, to the point that they seem to indicate a bullish rather than a bearish position on AI.
There’s definitely a better than 1 in 7 chance of a general market crash in the next year, given tariffs and recession risk (or, if you define crash loosely, we’ve already had one). Given that broader macro risk, merely 1 in 7 of an AI crash probably implies a forecast that AI will outperform the broader market.
If, for whatever reason, one is willing to disregard the macro risk, then there’s a lot more upside in just buying QQQ than taking your bet.
If you think there’s a 40% chance of a crash, then that’s quite the vig you’re allocating yourself on this bet at 1:7.