Yea, fair enough. His prediction was: “I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
The second one is more hedged (“may be a world”) but “essentially all the code” must translate to a very large fraction of all the value even if that last 1% or whatever is of outsize economic significance.
So, I certainly wouldn’t expect the AI companies to capture all the value; you’re right that competition drives the profits down. But, I also don’t think it’s reasonable to expect profits to get competed down to zero. Innovations in IT are generally pretty easy to replicate, technically speaking, but tech companies operate at remarkably high margins. Even at the moment, your various LLMs are similar but are not exact substitutes for one another, which gives each some market power.