There are no transaction costs if you have USDC on Polygon. Onboarding USDC into Polygon might bear costs but they are minimal.
Annapurna
Karma: 677
I would say very low?
I would also rank the theory that these mystery traders have hidden information as low. As of right now, based on what I have uncovered, I would say that the mystery trader(s) could be one the following (rank in order of what I think more likely to least likely):
1. A wealthy francophone european, somewhat involved in crypto and/or tech, who believes Trump will win and is betting a somewhat trivial amount (to this person) on this outcome. It is key to note that the main account has been trading since June, yet it only started seriously trading these markets after Musk appeared with Trump on stage.
2. A somewhat sophisticated entity that has a proprietary model that has Trump winning as a higher outcome, and believes the odds are mispriced. This entity realized that Polymarket had sufficient liquidity to allow it to bet 8 figures and move the price roughly to what it thinks Trump’s real odds are. This entity is likely foreign, and thus it has not been able to trade on Kalshi.
3. An insider of the Trump campaign that is using internal information to make a more informed trade. Perhaps this is someone related to Elon. It could also be someone who understands that since May last year people have been using Polymarket as yet another gauge of how this election might turn up, and by pushing the odds on Poly they are distorting the narrative 18 days before the election.
Hunterbrook just came out with a piece alleging the damage at Spruce Pine is catastrophic:
https://hntrbrk.com/essential-node-in-global-semiconductor-supply-chain-hit-by-hurricane-helene-video-reveals-entrance-to-mine-has-flooded/
I am with you, I have been trying to find more sources to see if semiconductor-grade quartz if being produced in places like Norway and Brazil, where deposits of high purity quartz are found. But from the research I have done, it seems that roughly 90% of semiconductor-grade quartz produced today is produce at Spruce Pine. Please let me know if you find any sources that say the contrary (I hope I am wrong honestly).
With respects to road disruptions, I agree. If it’s a matter of national security, stakeholders will do whatever is necessary to ensure the material is transported out. However road disruptions is one part of the equation. There are other scenarios to consider such as power issues and destruction of the refining plants themselves that we have to take into consideration.
I am certainly saying YES to a lot of stuff on the chance that ASI arrives and our lives change completely (Or we all die). Lets say that I am living more in the present now than I was 2 years ago. I do wonder if those closest to the frontier work would realize first and just go do things that really matter to them.
If Mira Murati goes the way of Sam Trabucco, it will be concerning tell.
Re: Mira Murati departure,
I wonder if a sign of AGI / ASI arriving soon is executives of frontier AI companies retiring early to enjoy the fruits of their labor before the world fundamentally changes for all of us.
That would be ideal. How does the world urge them?
I’m seeing OTC markets at 50% confirmation by year end.
By the way, in 2050 you are more likely to reduce your consumption anyways because of age. This is a very common thing among humans: those who very successfully save for later end up saving so much that they end up dying with a pile of assets.
This new paradigm (AGI arriving in our lifetimes) is beginning to change the way I optimize life design.
“If there is a new world order—AI or something else changes everything—and we are not all dead, how do you prepare for that? Good question. What does such a world look like? Some such worlds you don’t have to prepare and it is fine. Others, it is very important that you start with capital. Keeping yourself healthy, cultivating good habits and remaining flexible and grounded are probably some good places to start.”
This is the question I am working on answering at the moment. It seems to me that it is universally agreed that AGI will happen in my lifetime (I am 34). My reasoning tells me that either AGI destroys us, or it fundamentally changes society, improving the average human standards of living substantially. This could very well mean that concepts such as law, government, capital markets, family systems,etc are significantly different than they are today.
Thinking of preparing for this new world is hard. Here’s a few things that I’ve began doing:
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I am thinking less of life past 60, and shifting that energy more to the present moment.
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Saving for retirement is slowly going down in the list of priorities. I have a very healthy asset base and I am not going to blow through it all, But I am also not going to maximize savings either. I will put some money away, but less than I would a few years ago. That % I am not saving for retirement will be going to the present moment.
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Definitely not delaying bucket list items. If I can do it, I will do it.
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The probability of having biological children has gone down. I have discussed this with my partner. We will not be ready for children for the next three years and she’s older than me, so the chances of biological children were already low. Furthermore adopting is still on the table and the probability of that is even higher now.
More importantly, these are all moving goal posts as developments happen.
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I feel the same way. You’re not alone.
You’re right it is not obvious. I just want ideas of things that are not so obvious that I can look into and if I am convinced that there is a small probability one of those ideas could be the one with the breakthrough, I will buy some of it.
This post gives us a glimpse at the exploitable inefficiencies of prediction markets. Whether prediction markets become mainstream or not is yet to be seen, but even today there are ways for sharp people to make money arbitraging and reading the fine print of the market rules carefully.
Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place.
But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened.
Isn’t the most accurate source of information about the world Wikipedia?
And it works fairly well?
Anyways, great post. Watching the pitchforks come out against this whole ordeal is kind of comical, and I am excited to see how this Culture Battle over Musk-owned private Twitter plays out.
Excellent comment.
What I fear is being left out of certain social outings because I don’t drink and you out it succinctly.
We are the minority but I think our minority is not so small.
I also agree with you that the AA framing turns me off. I wonder when western society will stop seeing people who don’t drink as someone who used to have a problem?
Your comment would have more validity had the market not corrected the dislocation created by Theo. It took three weeks, but the market eventually corrected itself.