Re: Mira Murati departure,
I wonder if a sign of AGI / ASI arriving soon is executives of frontier AI companies retiring early to enjoy the fruits of their labor before the world fundamentally changes for all of us.
Annapurna
Karma: 826
[Question] On the subject of in-house large language models versus implementing frontier models
Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
That would be ideal. How does the world urge them?
[Question] How can the world handle the HAMAS situation?
‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unforeseen test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth
I’m seeing OTC markets at 50% confirmation by year end.
The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor
An Overview of Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4
By the way, in 2050 you are more likely to reduce your consumption anyways because of age. This is a very common thing among humans: those who very successfully save for later end up saving so much that they end up dying with a pile of assets.
This new paradigm (AGI arriving in our lifetimes) is beginning to change the way I optimize life design.
“If there is a new world order—AI or something else changes everything—and we are not all dead, how do you prepare for that? Good question. What does such a world look like? Some such worlds you don’t have to prepare and it is fine. Others, it is very important that you start with capital. Keeping yourself healthy, cultivating good habits and remaining flexible and grounded are probably some good places to start.”
This is the question I am working on answering at the moment. It seems to me that it is universally agreed that AGI will happen in my lifetime (I am 34). My reasoning tells me that either AGI destroys us, or it fundamentally changes society, improving the average human standards of living substantially. This could very well mean that concepts such as law, government, capital markets, family systems,etc are significantly different than they are today.
Thinking of preparing for this new world is hard. Here’s a few things that I’ve began doing:
-
I am thinking less of life past 60, and shifting that energy more to the present moment.
-
Saving for retirement is slowly going down in the list of priorities. I have a very healthy asset base and I am not going to blow through it all, But I am also not going to maximize savings either. I will put some money away, but less than I would a few years ago. That % I am not saving for retirement will be going to the present moment.
-
Definitely not delaying bucket list items. If I can do it, I will do it.
-
The probability of having biological children has gone down. I have discussed this with my partner. We will not be ready for children for the next three years and she’s older than me, so the chances of biological children were already low. Furthermore adopting is still on the table and the probability of that is even higher now.
More importantly, these are all moving goal posts as developments happen.
-
[Question] Ways to prepare to a vastly new world?
I feel the same way. You’re not alone.
You’re right it is not obvious. I just want ideas of things that are not so obvious that I can look into and if I am convinced that there is a small probability one of those ideas could be the one with the breakthrough, I will buy some of it.
[Question] Looking for ideas of public assets (stocks, funds, ETFs) that I can invest in to have a chance at profiting from the mass adoption and commercialization of AI technology
This post gives us a glimpse at the exploitable inefficiencies of prediction markets. Whether prediction markets become mainstream or not is yet to be seen, but even today there are ways for sharp people to make money arbitraging and reading the fine print of the market rules carefully.
Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place.
But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened.
I am certainly saying YES to a lot of stuff on the chance that ASI arrives and our lives change completely (Or we all die). Lets say that I am living more in the present now than I was 2 years ago. I do wonder if those closest to the frontier work would realize first and just go do things that really matter to them.
If Mira Murati goes the way of Sam Trabucco, it will be concerning tell.