I would also rank the theory that these mystery traders have hidden information as low. As of right now, based on what I have uncovered, I would say that the mystery trader(s) could be one the following (rank in order of what I think more likely to least likely):
1. A wealthy francophone european, somewhat involved in crypto and/or tech, who believes Trump will win and is betting a somewhat trivial amount (to this person) on this outcome. It is key to note that the main account has been trading since June, yet it only started seriously trading these markets after Musk appeared with Trump on stage.
2. A somewhat sophisticated entity that has a proprietary model that has Trump winning as a higher outcome, and believes the odds are mispriced. This entity realized that Polymarket had sufficient liquidity to allow it to bet 8 figures and move the price roughly to what it thinks Trump’s real odds are. This entity is likely foreign, and thus it has not been able to trade on Kalshi.
3. An insider of the Trump campaign that is using internal information to make a more informed trade. Perhaps this is someone related to Elon. It could also be someone who understands that since May last year people have been using Polymarket as yet another gauge of how this election might turn up, and by pushing the odds on Poly they are distorting the narrative 18 days before the election.
I would say very low?
I would also rank the theory that these mystery traders have hidden information as low. As of right now, based on what I have uncovered, I would say that the mystery trader(s) could be one the following (rank in order of what I think more likely to least likely):
1. A wealthy francophone european, somewhat involved in crypto and/or tech, who believes Trump will win and is betting a somewhat trivial amount (to this person) on this outcome. It is key to note that the main account has been trading since June, yet it only started seriously trading these markets after Musk appeared with Trump on stage.
2. A somewhat sophisticated entity that has a proprietary model that has Trump winning as a higher outcome, and believes the odds are mispriced. This entity realized that Polymarket had sufficient liquidity to allow it to bet 8 figures and move the price roughly to what it thinks Trump’s real odds are. This entity is likely foreign, and thus it has not been able to trade on Kalshi.
3. An insider of the Trump campaign that is using internal information to make a more informed trade. Perhaps this is someone related to Elon. It could also be someone who understands that since May last year people have been using Polymarket as yet another gauge of how this election might turn up, and by pushing the odds on Poly they are distorting the narrative 18 days before the election.