Ajeya’s median of 2040 for Paul? No idea for Demis. It might be better to not include people you don’t have data for, because including your guesses could be misleading. Or at least indicate they’re guesses somehow...
I’ll adjust Paul. I agree it would be better if there was more clarity on guesses. If there is enough interest in the site I will push an update in a couple months and add indicators on what constitutes rough guesses.
Surely Paul Christiano has shorter timelines than 2048, and Demis Hassabis has a credence in x-risk lower than 45%?
Yeah, looking into this more I agree on both points. I don’t see good data on those axes for either of those two.
You want to take a stab at a guesstimate for what new values would be better, so I can update the chart?
Ajeya’s median of 2040 for Paul? No idea for Demis. It might be better to not include people you don’t have data for, because including your guesses could be misleading. Or at least indicate they’re guesses somehow...
I’ll adjust Paul. I agree it would be better if there was more clarity on guesses. If there is enough interest in the site I will push an update in a couple months and add indicators on what constitutes rough guesses.