You’ve probably thought more about this scenario than I have, so I’d be interested in hearing more about how you think it will play out. (Do you have links to where you’ve discussed it previously?) I was speaking mostly in relative terms, as slowing down rival AGI efforts in the ways I described seems more promising/realistic/safer than any other “pivotal acts” I had previously heard or thought of.
My overall sense is that with substantial commited effort (but no need for fundamental advances) and some amount of within US coordination, it’s reasonably, but not amazingly, likely to work. (See here for some discussion.)
I think the likelihood of well executed substantial commited effort isn’t that high though, maybe 50%. And sufficient within US coordination also seems unclear.
You’ve probably thought more about this scenario than I have, so I’d be interested in hearing more about how you think it will play out. (Do you have links to where you’ve discussed it previously?) I was speaking mostly in relative terms, as slowing down rival AGI efforts in the ways I described seems more promising/realistic/safer than any other “pivotal acts” I had previously heard or thought of.
My overall sense is that with substantial commited effort (but no need for fundamental advances) and some amount of within US coordination, it’s reasonably, but not amazingly, likely to work. (See here for some discussion.)
I think the likelihood of well executed substantial commited effort isn’t that high though, maybe 50%. And sufficient within US coordination also seems unclear.