My overall sense is that with substantial commited effort (but no need for fundamental advances) and some amount of within US coordination, it’s reasonably, but not amazingly, likely to work. (See here for some discussion.)
I think the likelihood of well executed substantial commited effort isn’t that high though, maybe 50%. And sufficient within US coordination also seems unclear.
My overall sense is that with substantial commited effort (but no need for fundamental advances) and some amount of within US coordination, it’s reasonably, but not amazingly, likely to work. (See here for some discussion.)
I think the likelihood of well executed substantial commited effort isn’t that high though, maybe 50%. And sufficient within US coordination also seems unclear.