$2,000/yr per agent is nothing, when we are talking about hypothetical AGI. This seems to be evidence against your claim that energy is a taut constraint.
Sure, the actual price of compute would be more, because of the hardware and facilities etc. But that doesn’t change the bottom line that energy is not a taut constraint.
Maybe you are saying that in the future energy will become a taut constraint because we can’t make chips significantly more energy efficient but we can make them significantly cheaper in every other way, so energy will become the dominant part of the cost of compute?
Energy is always an engineering constraint: it’s a primary constraint on Moore’s Law, and thus also a primary limiter on a fast takeoff with GPUs (because world power supply isn’t enough to support net ANN compute much larger than current brain population net compute).
But again I already indicated it’s probably not a ‘taut constraint’ on early AGI in terms of economic cost—at least in my model of likely requirements for early not-smarter-than-human AGI.
Also yes additionally longer term we can expect energy to become a larger fraction of economic cost—through some combination of more efficient chip production, or just the slowing of moore’s law itself (which implies chips holding value for much longer, thus reducing the dominant hardware depreciation component of rental costs)
$2,000/yr per agent is nothing, when we are talking about hypothetical AGI. This seems to be evidence against your claim that energy is a taut constraint.
Sure, the actual price of compute would be more, because of the hardware and facilities etc. But that doesn’t change the bottom line that energy is not a taut constraint.
Maybe you are saying that in the future energy will become a taut constraint because we can’t make chips significantly more energy efficient but we can make them significantly cheaper in every other way, so energy will become the dominant part of the cost of compute?
Energy is always an engineering constraint: it’s a primary constraint on Moore’s Law, and thus also a primary limiter on a fast takeoff with GPUs (because world power supply isn’t enough to support net ANN compute much larger than current brain population net compute).
But again I already indicated it’s probably not a ‘taut constraint’ on early AGI in terms of economic cost—at least in my model of likely requirements for early not-smarter-than-human AGI.
Also yes additionally longer term we can expect energy to become a larger fraction of economic cost—through some combination of more efficient chip production, or just the slowing of moore’s law itself (which implies chips holding value for much longer, thus reducing the dominant hardware depreciation component of rental costs)
Or maybe you aren’t saying energy is a taut constraint at all? It sure sounded like you did but maybe I misinterpreted you.