Considering that at least part of the correct solution was found within 24 hours, I think you’re right, Locke. It might affect accessibility, though—I know I would be sad if I logged on only to find that the discussion had closed already.
Having read through the speculation, I even found most of the chapter quite anticlimactic. Recognizing the correct predictions removed all the tension, since MOR’s tension relies so much on plotting.
That said, though, reading through the discussion gave me a harmless and very insightful lesson into how predictions work. I learned what makes a prediction probable versus plausible, in a way that not only allows me to understand it, but to think about how I would apply it to my life (I hadn’t really internalized that the percents of all possible outcomes have to add to a hundred, even though in hindsight that’s fairly obvious. I also learned about the betting-real-money threshold).
All in all, despite getting in the way of the chapter, it was a nice, closed-environment rationalist lesson. Thank you for prompting the discussion, Eliezer!
Considering that at least part of the correct solution was found within 24 hours,
Dude who came up with the blood debt answer did so in about fifteen minutes, actually. I was one of the ones (in #lesswrong anyhow) who suggested that Harry would destroy the Dementor for the shock-value.
Turns out EY had Harry both go over and under that prediction.
Agreed. I initially felt a lot of tension as to the answer, and it didn’t fade upon a day or two’s speculation, but I did not feel that tension when I read the chapter. I definitely think that a wait over major cliffhangers is indicated, but a long one (even 5 days) cannot sustain the tension.
Five days was perfect in my perspective. To be honest I thought the speculation had the potential to be very fun and mentally stimulating but the way we did it was completely wrong. What ended up happening was everyone proposed own theories left and right and in the end only a few people got some of the answer right, whereas if we collaborated better we could have ended up with an entire community who guessed most of the answer right. Makes for more overall happy.
After considering, I feel it got in the way because people got so much right. It made Harry’s dark side much less awesome.
Instead of being, as usual, impressed, I felt more like “why did he even need a mysterious Dark Side for this? And how did he not come up with it in all the time while trying-to-do-the-impossible before the trial?” Which is unfair, but it’s not clear fair unbiased thinking that decides for us whether or not we enjoy something...
Vote up if you think all the speculation got in the way of the chapter itself.
Five days was too long, IMO. If we only had 24 hours I would have enjoyed it much more.
Considering that at least part of the correct solution was found within 24 hours, I think you’re right, Locke. It might affect accessibility, though—I know I would be sad if I logged on only to find that the discussion had closed already.
Having read through the speculation, I even found most of the chapter quite anticlimactic. Recognizing the correct predictions removed all the tension, since MOR’s tension relies so much on plotting.
That said, though, reading through the discussion gave me a harmless and very insightful lesson into how predictions work. I learned what makes a prediction probable versus plausible, in a way that not only allows me to understand it, but to think about how I would apply it to my life (I hadn’t really internalized that the percents of all possible outcomes have to add to a hundred, even though in hindsight that’s fairly obvious. I also learned about the betting-real-money threshold).
All in all, despite getting in the way of the chapter, it was a nice, closed-environment rationalist lesson. Thank you for prompting the discussion, Eliezer!
Dude who came up with the blood debt answer did so in about fifteen minutes, actually. I was one of the ones (in #lesswrong anyhow) who suggested that Harry would destroy the Dementor for the shock-value.
Turns out EY had Harry both go over and under that prediction.
Agreed. I initially felt a lot of tension as to the answer, and it didn’t fade upon a day or two’s speculation, but I did not feel that tension when I read the chapter. I definitely think that a wait over major cliffhangers is indicated, but a long one (even 5 days) cannot sustain the tension.
Five days was perfect in my perspective. To be honest I thought the speculation had the potential to be very fun and mentally stimulating but the way we did it was completely wrong. What ended up happening was everyone proposed own theories left and right and in the end only a few people got some of the answer right, whereas if we collaborated better we could have ended up with an entire community who guessed most of the answer right. Makes for more overall happy.
After considering, I feel it got in the way because people got so much right. It made Harry’s dark side much less awesome.
Instead of being, as usual, impressed, I felt more like “why did he even need a mysterious Dark Side for this? And how did he not come up with it in all the time while trying-to-do-the-impossible before the trial?” Which is unfair, but it’s not clear fair unbiased thinking that decides for us whether or not we enjoy something...