Joshua Hobbes

• Joshua Hobbes 13 Nov 2023 1:09 UTC

  6 points

  3

  on: Zvi’s Man­i­fold Mar­kets House Rules

  Interesting! I’ve never seen someone try to make a such a comprehensive set of baseline rules, it seems like a good project!

  I think the most controversial item here is 13:
  

  Markets will resolve early, even if the outcome is unknown, if the degree of uncertainty remaining is insufficient to render the market interesting, and the market is trading >95% or <5% (or for markets multiple years in advance, >90% or <10%), and I agree with the market but feel it mostly reflects Manifold interest rates. Markets will not be allowed to turn into bets on interest rates. However if it could still plausibly resolve N/​A, then I will hold off.

  Could you give some examples of markets you think this rule should apply to? For example, I run the the market on Eliezer’s 150k UFO bet:

  Would you resolve that market early, if you were the market creator and if it never went below 90% for a year?

  For your own markets, is this policy retroactive? Will you resolve this market early?

• Joshua Hobbes 14 Mar 2015 17:06 UTC

  13 points

  on: [FINAL CHAPTER] Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, March 2015, chap­ter 122

  Since it looks like we won’t be getting a canonical answer, any thoughts on what exactly the Peverell Prophecy means?

  “Three shall be Peverell’s sons and three their devices by which Death shall be defeated.”

• Joshua Hobbes 11 Mar 2015 3:05 UTC

  1 point

  on: [LINK] Author’s Note 119: Shame­less Begging

  Blegging*

• Joshua Hobbes 4 Mar 2015 18:04 UTC

  16 points

  in reply to: Eliezer Yudkowsky’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, March 2015, chap­ter 114 + chap­ter 115

  Having the Death Eaters look around makes sense, but the paralysis seems contrived to me. It’s a very specific level of intelligence between what he have now and just having Mr. Grim cast Expelliarmus. I think it is more realistic for Voldemort to have dismissed the threat than for him to have considered it and decided that paralyzing Harry was the best solution.

• Joshua Hobbes 10 Sep 2013 18:24 UTC

  3 points

  in reply to: DataPacRat’s comment on: The Ul­ti­mate New­comb’s Problem

  Has anyone actually tried to answer the Ultimate Trolley Problem? I’m thinking right.

• Joshua Hobbes 23 Dec 2012 21:09 UTC

  13 points

  on: New cen­sor­ship: against hy­po­thet­i­cal vi­o­lence against iden­ti­fi­able people

  Would this censor posts about robbing banks and then donating the proceeds to charity?

• Joshua Hobbes 22 Dec 2012 23:55 UTC

  2 points

  in reply to: MixedNuts’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 18, chap­ter 87

  Ah damn it.

• Joshua Hobbes 22 Dec 2012 21:16 UTC

  8 points

  in reply to: pedanterrific’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 18, chap­ter 87

  Alright, you win there.

• Joshua Hobbes 22 Dec 2012 20:09 UTC

  −3 points

  in reply to: pedanterrific’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 18, chap­ter 87

  Are you referring to the sexual stuff? I don’t think that shows a difference in his personality so much as a lack of censorship. I could easily conceive of canon Draco making such comments, but them never being in the books due to censorship.

• Joshua Hobbes 22 Dec 2012 18:23 UTC

  4 points

  in reply to: Alicorn’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 18, chap­ter 87

  All the adults certainly were, but what about the students? Draco was the same before Harry started corrupting him, Ron’s still an idiot, Neville is still a Hufflepuff, etc. Maybe Fred and George are a bit more awesome, and Zabini is an entirely different person, but aside from that Harry’s peers seem to have been kept to the same level. If Hermione were a sensible person, she’d probably outclass Harry just as much as she does in canon, and then the story would be Hermione Granger and How She Learned the Methods of Rationality and Became Omnipotent.

• Joshua Hobbes 22 Dec 2012 18:07 UTC

  5 points

  in reply to: Alicorn’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 18, chap­ter 87

  I think a lot of this should be blamed on Rowling, not Eliezer. Hermione is pretty much the same as she is in canon, and I don’t think we can fault him for not upgrading her.

• Joshua Hobbes 22 Dec 2012 17:09 UTC

  2 points

  on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 18, chap­ter 87

  Wow, that is… that is the gaudiest checkered top hat I’ve ever seen.

  Does anyone else think this might be a hint? It’s not the same as H&C’s “broad-brimmed black hat”, but I find it interesting that it’s mentioned at all. If we rule out all the suspects who have already been considered in 87, who are probably all red herrings, Flamel stands out as one of the few wizards clever enough to play such a game, along with Sirius Black.

• Joshua Hobbes 18 Dec 2012 4:07 UTC

  8 points

  in reply to: fubarobfusco’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 17, chap­ter 86

  Some of us are going to need a link explaining this system.

• Joshua Hobbes 18 Dec 2012 4:00 UTC

  21 points

  in reply to: Eneasz’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 17, chap­ter 86

  They can’t interact magically, so no.

• Joshua Hobbes 15 Aug 2012 21:31 UTC

  0 points

  on: Luke is do­ing an AMA on Reddit

  Why is it just Luke doing the AMA? Eliezer already has an account for HPMOR, after all.

• Joshua Hobbes 10 Aug 2012 20:02 UTC

  8 points

  in reply to: chaosmosis’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 16, chap­ter 85

  I think it’s pretty clear he got that information, along with many of his other dark secrets, from the Basalisk.

• Joshua Hobbes 6 Aug 2012 17:46 UTC

  5 points

  in reply to: chaosmosis’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 16, chap­ter 85

  How about Animagus-ing into an immortal jellyfish? Certainly not an ideal life, but if it lets you keep old age at bay long enough the muggles will discover human immortality.

• Joshua Hobbes 18 Jul 2012 6:19 UTC

  2 points

  in reply to: 75th’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 16, chap­ter 85

  Yeah, I’d really like to know Eliezer’s reasoning here. What are the possible advantages of this change?

  I suppose it is technically more accurate, since not all adult wizards are more dangerous than Dementors or Trolls. Dark Wizards, on the other hand, specifically train to be so.

• Joshua Hobbes 2 Jun 2012 5:14 UTC

  3 points

  on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 16, chap­ter 85

  I’m very much in favor of removing the Ghostbusters song from canon, and putting it in the Omakes.

• Joshua Hobbes 18 May 2012 22:42 UTC

  5 points

  in reply to: Eugine_Nier’s comment on: Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity dis­cus­sion thread, part 16, chap­ter 85

  Bella isn’t under the influence of a love potion, though.